The UK is bracing for an autumn that will be both wetter and warmer than historical norms, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño climate pattern, according to the latest projections from the Met Office.
The weather phenomenon, currently forecast to become the most powerful El Niño on record, is expected to peak in November or December. This shift is anticipated to alter storm tracks, increasing the likelihood of wet and windy conditions, particularly from November onward.
Ian Lisk, the Met Office Chief Meteorologist, noted that while the historical influence of El Niño aligns with wetter autumn conditions, the intensity of this specific event does not guarantee severe impacts for the UK. “While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK,” Lisk stated.
The anticipated rainfall offers a potential lifeline to areas still gripped by drought, though officials caution that recovery will be gradual. Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency (EA), emphasized that drought recovery is a protracted process, only concluding when reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater supplies return to normal levels. The EA National Drought Group confirmed on Thursday that despite recent unsettled weather, drought status remains unchanged.
However, the prospect of “weather whiplash”—rapid shifts between extreme dry and wet conditions—poses a significant risk. The UK experienced a similar pattern in 2025, characterized by record-breaking summer heat followed by autumn storms and flooding. The increased precipitation raises the immediate danger of flash flooding in vulnerable regions.
Temperature forecasts also point to an anomalously warm season. This follows summer 2026 being provisionally declared the hottest on record, marked by five widespread heatwaves and 40 days where temperatures exceeded 30C (86F). The warmth is compounded by marine heatwaves that have pushed sea surface temperatures around the UK up to 5C above normal, which in turn helps keep land temperatures higher than usual.
As for winter prospects, snow is unlikely this autumn. While strong El Niño events can enhance the chances of cold, snowy weather in north-west Europe during late winter, the UK’s location on the edge of the Atlantic makes outcomes unpredictable. Historical data since 1900 shows that only one winter following a strong El Niño, 1982/83, resulted in widespread disruptive snow.
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