Saudi Arabia has suspended operations on its critical East-West oil pipeline following a drone attack last Thursday, dealing another blow to already fragile global energy markets. The 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) conduit, which transports approximately 4 to 5 million barrels per day (bpd), connects the kingdom’s eastern oil fields with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, providing a vital alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
The Ministry of Energy described the shutdown as a precautionary measure after the incident caused damage and injuries in the Riyadh and Medina regions. Authorities traced the drone launch to Maysan province in southeastern Iraq, an area near the Iranian border with a significant presence of Iran-aligned armed groups.
The closure arrives amid severe disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February. Additionally, Houthi forces in Yemen have intensified attacks across the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, making maritime transit increasingly perilous. Prior to the conflict, the strait facilitated more than 20 million bpd of global oil trade, but industry estimates now place that figure between 6 million and 9 million bpd.
With maritime routes under threat, Saudi Arabia had increased reliance on the East-West pipeline, also known as the Petroline, raising flows to roughly 4 to 5 million bpd during the first five months of the war. This volume represents between 4 and 5 percent of global supply. However, recent data from Kpler indicates that August flows dropped to about 2 million bpd, the lowest level since January, as Houthi activity constrained Red Sea operations.
Estimates regarding the timeline for repairs vary. Sources familiar with the situation told Reuters that restoration could take five to six weeks, though other indications suggest operations might resume sooner. This incident follows a March strike near the Yanbu refinery, jointly operated by Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil, which temporarily disrupted crude loadings but saw shipments recover within days.
The International Energy Agency reported that Saudi oil supply fell to a three-decade low in August due to these compounding disruptions, warning that world oil supplies are projected to decline by approximately 5.7 million bpd this year—equivalent to 6 percent of global consumption. While strategic reserves have so far cushioned the impact, keeping Brent crude within a $70 to $90 range, the IEA cautioned that continued inventory drawdowns could push prices toward $150 per barrel if stocks reach critically low levels.
If the pipeline remains offline, sources close to Reuters noted that Yanbu’s available stocks could sustain exports for five to seven days, with additional support from Egyptian facilities at Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir. However, analysts at Gavekal Research warned that if Yanbu, which processes over 1 million bpd, is forced offline due to persistent threats, the consequences for the world’s tightly balanced refining capacity could be disastrous.
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