Communication Blackout and Blockade Fears Rise as Northern Ethiopia Conflict Escalates

Concerns over a communication blackout and supply blockade in northern Ethiopia have intensified following renewed clashes between the federal military and Tigray region forces alongside their allies. Reports indicate that both telecom and internet services ceased functioning on Friday, raising alarms that the conflict could expand into a nationwide war.

NetBlocks, a web monitoring organization, confirmed an “internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray.” According to Reuters, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) directed private operator Safaricom and state-owned Ethio telecom to disconnect phone and internet access in the area. A source suggested these restrictions may be a strategic move to neutralize the federal forces’ advantage in using battlefield drones.

The situation has triggered memories of the 2020-2022 civil war, during which Tigray was largely isolated from the outside world. That conflict resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths and imposed a blockade that led to famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands. In response to the current disruptions, residents in Tigray are reportedly rushing to withdraw cash and stockpile essential supplies.

While lower-level skirmishes between federal and Tigrayan forces had persisted for some time, violence escalated significantly this week across Tigray and spread into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. This development followed an announcement by seven armed groups forming the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which has pledged to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The Tigray Army stated that the federal government launched a “full-scale offensive” involving infantry, mechanized units, and drones, prompting their forces to begin a defensive war. The alliance claims to have seized three airports and launched attacks against federal troops in Afar and Amhara. Conversely, the federal government has accused Eritrea of providing financial backing to the TPLF and its allies, a charge denied by leaders in Asmara.

Abdisalam Balema, a member of the TPLF central committee, told Al Jazeera that the region is now engaged in a “full war.” The outbreak marks the most severe escalation since the previous civil war ended. The timing presents a diplomatic challenge for the United States, which recently lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last conflict, declaring the “national emergency… has expired.” Additionally, there are concerns that the conflict could draw in neighboring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia aims to invade it to secure access to the Red Sea.