Berlin Votes on Housing Crisis and Political Polarization as Key Election Drivers

Berlin’s upcoming state election on September 20 is shaping up to be a defining moment for the German capital, where a deeply fragmented electorate is grappling with the city’s severe housing shortage and increasingly polarized political landscape. The three main contenders—Die Linke (The Left), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)—are locked in a close struggle, with pre-vote surveys indicating a near dead heat.

According to the latest infratest dimap poll, Die Linke holds a marginal lead at 21%, followed closely by the CDU at 20% and the AfD at 18%. The Greens sit at 16%, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD), historically a dominant force in Berlin governance, has slipped to 12%. This tight race contrasts with the clearer-cut results seen recently in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD achieved a dramatic victory; however, analysts warn that a win for Die Linke would still significantly reshape Berlin’s politics and intensify pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s federal government.

Berlin’s political geography is notoriously atomized, often described as a “city of villages” where residents rarely venture beyond their local district, or _Kiez_. While central districts tend to favor the Greens or the Left Party, the outskirts—home to the majority of the population—are strongholds for the center-right CDU and, in specific areas, the AfD. This divide makes predicting outcomes particularly difficult as more parties vie for attention on the city’s lampposts.

For the CDU, the campaign faces additional hurdles following the controversial decision of incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner not to seek re-election. Wegner faced intense backlash after being photographed playing tennis during a major power outage, prompting the party to hastily install Finance Minister Stefan Evers as its new candidate. Evers now navigates a delicate path between two rising threats: a confident AfD and a surging Left Party both aiming to build on their 2023 performance.

Opposing Evers is Elif Eralp, a lawyer and Die Linke candidate born in Munich to Turkish parents who fled a military coup. Polls suggest neither mayoral frontrunner enjoys high name recognition, with roughly half of Berliners reporting no strong opinions on the leading candidates.

At the heart of the campaign is the issue of rents, which a recent Berlin Trend poll identified as the top concern for 32% of voters—far outpacing immigration (10%) and security (9%). Die Linke’s co-leader Kerstin Wolter argues that the party’s radical stance on housing stems from necessity rather than populism. The party is the only major group committed to implementing a 2021 referendum result that called for the expropriation of large real estate holdings, specifically companies owning more than 3,000 units. Successive governments led by the SPD and CDU have delayed these measures, fueling voter frustration.

“All the polls, all the surveys, all the conversations we have with voters ourselves, it’s always the same: The rent situation is catastrophic,” Wolter told DW. She emphasized that citizens are losing apartments to landlords reclaiming properties for personal use, creating a climate of fear and instability.

While Die Linke has gained traction by offering direct solutions, the party has also faced scrutiny over antisemitism allegations stemming from campaign events in Neukölln, where chants against the Israeli military drew condemnation. Despite this, political scientists like Julia Reuschenbach note that Die Linke has positioned itself as a credible counterweight to the AfD by providing clear, albeit maximalist, policy proposals. Additionally, the lowering of the voting age to 16 for this election may further energize younger, politically engaged voters concerned about climate change, job prospects, and pension security.