SpaceX is rapidly transitioning into a significant provider of high-performance computing power, a move analysts describe as the company’s most lucrative growth opportunity beyond its rocket operations. According to recent reports from TD Cowen and Deutsche Bank, the aerospace giant’s ability to lease data center capacity to major artificial intelligence developers is set to become its primary revenue engine.
John Blackledge, leading the analyst team at TD Cowen, initiated coverage of SpaceX with a buy rating and a $200 price target. In a client note released Monday, Blackledge identified the AI computing sector as the “biggest near-term driver” of revenue, citing a substantial supply-and-demand imbalance in the industry. He noted that the valuation implies approximately a 37% upside from the stock’s closing price on Monday.
The shift is underpinned by binding agreements with prominent technology firms. Regulatory filings confirm that giants such as Alphabet and Anthropic, along with startup Reflection AI, have committed billions of dollars to secure computing resources from SpaceX. Additionally, there is widespread speculation that a fourth disclosed customer is the U.S. Defense Department, while CFO Bret Johnsen recently announced a new computing agreement scheduled to commence in December.
TD Cowen projects that computing-related sales will account for 35% of SpaceX’s total revenue in 2026. The firm anticipates that this segment could outperform Starlink, traditionally regarded as SpaceX’s “crown jewel,” by the first quarter of 2027. By 2028, the analysts forecast that AI computing leases will represent 65% of the company’s overall revenue.
Edison Yu at Deutsche Bank offered a similar bullish outlook, assigning a buy rating with a higher $235 price target. Yu estimated that the five currently disclosed customers generate a revenue run rate of $54.5 billion. He pointed to Elon Musk’s recent announcements regarding the expansion of SpaceX’s data center footprint as evidence that additional large-scale deals are likely to materialize given industry constraints.
Determining the precise scale of this emerging business remains complex due to limited public disclosure. However, Blackledge estimates that nearly half of SpaceX’s planned computing capacity will be leased to external companies in the coming years, with the remainder dedicated to internal AI development, including new agent products.
SpaceX has set an ambitious goal to achieve $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026, a milestone that would place it among the world’s most valuable private companies. The pivot toward cloud infrastructure signals a strategic diversification that could redefine the company’s market position independent of its launch vehicle successes.
Leave a Reply