Analysis: Who Actually Benefited Most from Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Tax Cuts

As the midterm elections approach, Republican leaders are heavily promoting President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” as a key legislative achievement. However, policy analysts indicate that the financial impact of the law varies significantly across different income groups and filing situations.

Trump signed the sweeping spending and tax measure on July 4, 2025, at the White House. The legislation, also referred to as the “Working Families Tax Cuts,” permanently extended the provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while introducing new deductions for tip income, overtime earnings, auto loan interest, and seniors. It also raised the federal cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions for itemizers.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued during a House Financial Services Committee hearing this week that the law delivered relief to “millions of low- and middle-income Americans.” He noted that more than 64 million tax returns claimed at least one of the administration’s signature new provisions.

Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, told CNBC that tens of millions of Americans have utilized these provisions and that the president remains eager to highlight the legislation.

Nevertheless, experts caution that the benefits are not evenly distributed. Joseph Rosenberg, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, explained to CNBC that the tax provisions affect households differently depending on their unique circumstances.

Permanent Extensions vs. New Deductions

The core of the bill involved making the 2017 tax cuts permanent. These included reduced tax brackets, increased standard deductions, a more robust child tax credit, and higher estate and gift tax exemptions. According to the Tax Foundation, approximately 62% of Americans would have faced tax increases in 2026 had these provisions expired as scheduled.

Garrett Watson, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, stated that “a clear majority of the benefit across the board” stemmed from extending these existing cuts rather than the new deductions. He characterized this aspect of the bill as “extending the status quo,” meaning many taxpayers may not perceive a significant change in their annual filings.

Who Gained from New Provisions?

The new deductions, which were central to Trump’s 2024 campaign, target specific taxpayer groups but include income phase-outs. Treasury data indicates the average tips deduction exceeded $7,000, while the average senior deduction was over $7,500.

However, because deductions reduce taxable income rather than providing direct credits, they do not generate refunds for those with no tax liability. Consequently, the lowest earners are less likely to benefit, according to experts.

The legislation also doubled the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for 2025, up from the previous $10,000 limit. While the Treasury has not released specific claim data, analysis suggests higher refunds in high-tax states like California and New Jersey. Watson noted that this provision is most advantageous to upper-middle- to upper-income earners, as it begins to phase out for filers earning $500,000 or more.

Refund Trends and Voter Impact

IRS data shows the average individual tax refund for the 2026 filing season reached $3,276 as of May 8, an 11.5% increase from the previous year. Experts warn, however, that refund sizes can fluctuate based on paycheck withholdings and changing earnings, making them an imperfect metric for measuring the bill’s overall impact.

With midterms looming, the political potency of the tax cuts remains uncertain. A Politico poll conducted in July found that nearly half of Americans surveyed could not explain the details of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.