AfD Victory in Saxony-Anhalt Tests Germany’s Far-Right Firewall

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt with approximately 44 percent of the vote, significantly outpacing the ruling Christian Democrats (CDU). The result marks the closest the far right has come to state-level power in Germany since the Second World War, falling just three seats short of an outright majority in the regional parliament.

Leading candidate Ulrich Siegmund confirmed on Monday that negotiations are already underway to recruit individual members of parliament from other parties to help form a governing majority. The outcome places immense pressure on Germany’s longstanding “firewall” consensus, which has historically excluded the far right from power coalitions. Analysts suggest the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist left-leaning party with immigration-skeptical and pro-Russia stances, could be pivotal in enabling an AfD-led government.

Ed Turner, a German politics specialist at Aston University, noted that the AfD’s success extended beyond its traditional voter base. The party performed strongly among working-class voters, those with lower qualification levels, and across nearly all age groups except those over 70. Turner highlighted that in eastern Germany, historical and cultural factors have fueled dissatisfaction and reduced support for Germany’s backing of Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Turner argued that preventing the AfD from taking office would require a complex coalition involving the CDU, the Left Party, and the BSW. He noted that the BSW has stated it would be undemocratic to completely exclude the AfD from government. With the parliamentary vote for minister-president scheduled within 30 days, Turner suggested it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the AfD is kept out, whether through BSW abstention or CDU rebels.

If given control of the state, the AfD has outlined plans to overhaul the education system, specifically suggesting a curriculum focused more on Otto von Bismarck and less on Adolf Hitler. Additional policy goals include limiting the integration of children with learning disabilities into mainstream schools, defunding the Protestant Church due to its social activism, and reevaluating joint broadcasting agreements among eastern German states.

While the AfD is classified as a right-wing extremist party, Turner distinguished its radicalism from mainstream European counterparts like France’s National Rally or Italy’s Brothers of Italy. He concluded that while the AfD may not reach federal power due to its unwillingness to moderate its message, its growing support is making governance for mainstream parties increasingly chaotic.