A newly formed armed coalition seeking to remove Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has brought together rival insurgent groups and ethnic movements, reviving a pattern of violent political struggle that has plagued the nation for decades. The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on September 20, unites the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and four other groups from the Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.
The alliance’s objective is to depose Abiy and establish an inclusive transition. Three key members—the TPLF, the Fano movement, and the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF)—hold strategic weight as they are based in northern Ethiopia, a region bordering Eritrea. Critics and observers suggest that Eritrea is providing logistical support to the coalition, although Asmara has denied such allegations.
Military action began quickly after the alliance’s formation. Three days later, TPLF forces, operating alongside ANURF, advanced into several districts in Zone 2 with minimal resistance. Ibrahim Osman Aliyu, the ANURF leader who defected to Eritrea last year, issued a statement to the Afar public, assuring them that hostilities were directed solely against the Prosperity Party and urging residents to either join his forces or remain neutral.
Analysts note that this new configuration risks repeating the errors of the United Front announced in 2021, which collapsed due to internal disputes and lack of unity within months. The current alliance faces significant internal challenges, including unresolved claims over western Tigray (Wolgait-Tsegede) and divergent visions for Ethiopia’s federal structure among the Oromo, Amhara, and Somali factions.
While the government maintains control of the capital and continues development projects, including a recent infrastructure launch in Djibouti, it must defend multiple fronts simultaneously. The new parliament is scheduled to convene on October 5. Most experts predict a prolonged and uneven conflict rather than a swift rebel victory, warning that even a successful ousting of the government would not resolve underlying territorial and constitutional disputes, potentially triggering a new civil war.
Abiy controls Addis Ababa, so a quick rebel victory seems unlikely. This looks like a long, messy fight.
Does anyone know if the Eritrean support claim has evidence? Asmara denies it, but their strategic location makes it plausible.
History rhymes here. The 2021 alliance failed fast. These groups are too diverse to stay united without collapsing immediately.