A report published Wednesday by the Climate Impact Lab (CIL) projects that the record-breaking heat generated by this year’s super El Nino could result in approximately 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June and February 2027. The study suggests that extreme heat days during this period may increase by 44 percent compared to historical norms.
Researchers analyzed mortality data across 24,378 regions, accounting for local climate conditions and vulnerability levels. They combined these findings with temperature forecasts to estimate the additional deaths attributable to El Nino-driven heat relative to the average recorded between 1996 and 2025. The methodology is set to be published in a peer-reviewed journal.
The current weather phenomenon qualifies as a “super” El Nino because ocean surface temperatures have reached or exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above average. Last month, temperatures peaked at 2.7 degrees Celsius, with some forecasts predicting a potential rise to 4 degrees Celsius between November and December.
The report, titled “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Nino,” emphasizes that this event serves as a preview of future climate conditions. Researchers urge targeted emergency responses in high-priority zones, recommending measures such as heat warnings, expanded medical staffing, cooling centers, and protections for outdoor laborers.
Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and CIL co-founder, stated that the findings enable policymakers to identify where interventions can prevent tens of thousands of fatalities in the coming months.
A Perfect Storm of Heat and Weather Disruption
El Nino is a natural climate cycle characterized by warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This year’s intensity was driven by strong winds from Indonesia during the spring, which transported massive amounts of warm water toward the eastern Pacific.
While the full global impact remains under assessment, historical patterns indicate significant shifts in rainfall. Regions including parts of South America, the western Pacific, and areas influenced by the Indian summer monsoon typically see reduced precipitation, while Southern Africa faces heightened drought risks. Conversely, tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic has decreased, with no hurricanes observed so far this year.
These disruptions threaten global food security by altering agricultural cycles. Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist at the University of Reading, noted that the event dumps substantial heat into the atmosphere, supercharging extreme weather events and increasing both their frequency and severity.
Climate Change Amplifies the Threat
Experts warn that the crisis is compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London, explained that fossil fuel emissions are raising baseline global temperatures, thereby intensifying the impacts of natural phenomena like El Nino.
“While El Nino patterns are a natural phenomenon that come and go, climate change does not and will only continue to worsen unless we take much faster action globally to move away from fossil fuels,” Otto said.
Disproportionate Impact on the Global South
The CIL report highlights that nations in the Global South will bear the brunt of the mortality crisis. Nigeria is projected to suffer the highest number of excess deaths at 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600. The Sahel region, including Niger and Chad, is expected to account for an additional 66,800 deaths. Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia may see a combined 19,400 excess fatalities.
Tom Burke, co-founder of the think tank E3G, argued that weaker institutions in poorer countries make coping with these stresses significantly harder. In contrast, nations in the Global North possess more robust infrastructure, including fire departments and health systems, to manage such crises.
However, the accuracy of specific regional projections has drawn some skepticism. Deoras questioned the projection of over 15,000 excess deaths in India, noting that the peak heat months there do not align with the report’s timeline. Burke also suggested the 451,000 figure may be conservative, as it accounts only for heat-related deaths and excludes fatalities from associated floods, fires, and economic shocks like food price inflation.
Despite uncertainties in exact numbers, experts agree that the super El Nino poses a severe risk to life, infrastructure, and the global economy over the next twelve months.
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