Seven months into the Iran war, diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran have reached a deadlock, and the conflict has expanded from the Strait of Hormuz to threaten another vital global shipping lane. In September, Houthi militants backed by Iran seized strategic positions along the Yemeni coast, endangering Red Sea trade routes and launching strikes against Saudi Arabia. These developments compound a worldwide energy crisis triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier in the month, Saudi officials attributed an explosion on a critical East-West oil pipeline to Iran-backed militias in Iraq. According to The New York Times, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman contacted US President Donald Trump on Sunday to press for intervention to halt the Houthi offensive. While Trump reportedly considered airstrikes at one point, he subsequently abandoned those plans. Reports indicate that the president has claimed the Houthis agreed not to target US interests, and Axios noted that Trump rejected a previous Saudi request for military strikes.
With gasoline and diesel prices at record highs ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections, Trump faces domestic pressure to demonstrate progress in the conflict. Fatemeh Aman, an Iran specialist who has worked with the Middle East Institute and the Atlantic Council, told DW that Trump seeks to conclude the war from a position of strength, aiming to weaken Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, restore freedom of navigation, and force Tehran back to negotiations. However, Aman observed that a clear strategy to achieve these goals remains elusive. Although the US has inflicted significant economic and military costs on Iran, Tehran has not surrendered, and no lasting ceasefire has been established.
Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington this week. As Iran’s primary oil buyer and key political ally, China plays a crucial role in Tehran’s economy. The US president is expected to urge Beijing to leverage its influence over Iran, particularly regarding security in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump has signaled willingness to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is attending the UN General Assembly in New York. Gulf state representatives are also expected in the US, where Trump plans to discuss the war during UN sidelines events.
Despite ongoing hostilities, there is little public consensus between Iran and its Gulf neighbors. A planned meeting involving Iran, Gulf states, and Iraq was canceled recently, potentially linked to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Farzan Sabet, a Middle East expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute, noted that while public discord is evident, all parties share an underlying interest in preventing further military escalation. Gulf states recognize they cannot win a direct confrontation with Iran and generally prefer de-escalation, yet meaningful agreement remains out of reach due to conflicting demands, particularly regarding Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran continues to pursue a two-track strategy, resisting US-led containment while offering Gulf states an alternative security model based on dialogue, according to Aman. Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei stated that Tehran demands an end to fighting on all fronts, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade. Talks with Qatar and Oman are ongoing, but whether these signals can lead to a broader political process is uncertain. For now, Washington, Tehran, and the Gulf states continue to operate with divergent plans for ending the months-long conflict.
Houthis hitting Saudi pipelines changes everything. This isn’t just about the Strait of Hormuz anymore.
Seven months and still deadlocked? Diplomatic talks seem completely irrelevant while the war expands.
China’s role is huge here. Trump needs Xi to pressure Tehran, but Beijing won’t just do Washington’s bidding.
Is it really ‘strength’ if there’s no clear exit strategy? The energy crisis is hurting everyday Americans now.