AfD wins regional votes but faces coalition isolation in Germany

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured decisive victories in recent regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, yet political analysts indicate the far-right party will likely remain in opposition due to a lack of willing coalition partners.

According to an exit poll conducted by infratest-dimap on election night, the AfD captured 37.9% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, surpassing the Social Democrats (SPD). The SPD, which had mounted a late surge under State Premier Manuela Schwesig, finished second with 35.7%. While final tallies may shift slightly, the result establishes the AfD as the strongest legislative force in the northeastern state.

Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, declared immediately after the preliminary results that his party held a clear mandate to govern. He stated that the AfD would initiate coalition discussions with all other political groups and suggested that Chancellor Friedrich Merz should resign, describing such a move as beneficial for the nation.

In the capital, the AfD also gained seats in the Berlin House of Representatives but underperformed relative to its own polling projections. The party secured 16.2% of the vote, falling short of the 18% support it registered just one week prior to the election.

Alice Weidel, another AfD co-leader, declared her party the “new people’s party” of Germany, positioning itself as the successor to the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU suffered significant losses in both regions. Weidel criticized traditional parties for maintaining “firewalls” against cooperation with the AfD, asserting that her party has not erected similar barriers. However, she provided no specific details on what policy negotiations might entail.

Despite these electoral gains, the path to forming a government appears blocked. Following the AfD’s narrow miss at an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, no other party has expressed willingness to join a coalition with the AfD. Local intelligence agencies have classified some AfD members as a threat to Germany’s democratic constitutional order.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, previously ruled out leading a minority government supported by other parties, insisting instead on a stable, single-party AfD administration. This stance contrasts with the national leadership’s apparent desire to enter government, with Weidel recently suggesting that even a minority administration was a viable option.

Political observers note that Weidel, who was the AfD’s chancellor candidate in the 2025 federal election, harbors ambitions to succeed Merz. A successful state-level government formation could bolster her national profile.

Nevertheless, the party’s rise has been accompanied by substantial public protests aimed at limiting AfD influence. Additionally, the campaign was marred by several scandals involving candidates with criminal records, including convictions for bank robbery and driving under the influence, as well as the discovery of Nazi memorabilia and drugs among staff of a lead candidate in Berlin.

Criticism regarding the party’s historical revisionism has also persisted. Recent incidents include an MEP posing near Hitler’s bunker and a Bundestag member describing himself as the “friendly face of National Socialism.” Meanwhile, Thuringia state leader Björn Höcke has been fined twice for using slogans associated with the Nazi-era Sturmabteilung (SA).