Germany: The Constitutional Pathways to Replacing Chancellor Merz

As Chancellor Friedrich Merz enters the sixteenth month of his tenure with historically low approval ratings, political observers in Berlin are debating whether he retains the support of his coalition partners and the Christian Democrats (CDU). Recent polling indicates that only 13 percent of Germans view Merz’s performance positively, a sentiment reinforced by the CDU’s significant electoral setback in Saxony-Anhalt in early September. Despite the mounting criticism regarding his communication style and political standing, Merz remains in power, leading to questions about how a German chancellor can be removed from office.

Under Germany’s Basic Law, the chancellor holds a robust position, making removal difficult. There are primarily three avenues through which a chancellor can be replaced: voluntary resignation, a constructive vote of no-confidence, or the collapse of the coalition government.

The most straightforward method is resignation. History shows this does not necessarily dismantle the governing alliance. In May 1974, Chancellor Willy Brandt resigned after it was revealed that an East German spy operated within his inner circle. His Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), chose to continue the partnership. Ten days later, Finance Minister Helmut Schmidt was elected as the new chancellor, securing the required absolute majority of all Bundestag members—a threshold known as the “chancellor majority.” Schmidt went on to lead the government for eight years.

A more complex mechanism is the constructive vote of no-confidence, stipulated in Article 67 of the Basic Law. This requires the Bundestag to simultaneously vote out the current chancellor and elect a successor with a majority. This occurred in 1982 when Chancellor Helmut Schmidt lost the support of the FDP over economic policy disagreements. The FDP allied with the conservative CDU and CSU to install Helmut Kohl as chancellor, who then governed for 16 years.

Regarding the current situation, experts consider a constructive vote of no-confidence highly improbable. The CDU and SPD have no intention of ending their coalition, and there is no prominent rival candidate emerging to replace Merz. While Hendrik Wüst, the State Premier of North Rhine-Westphalia and a member of the CDU, is occasionally mentioned as a potential successor, he has not signaled any ambition to advance. Furthermore, the CDU tradition of loyalty to its leaders makes the prospect of a public ouster through parliamentary votes nearly unthinkable for most conservative lawmakers.

For now, Chancellor Merz appears determined to remain in office, despite the intensifying pressure from both political opponents and critics within his own ranks.