Aryna Sabalenka entered the US Open final with a singular realization: winning the tournament is essential, though perhaps not sufficient, to prevent Elena Rybakina from usurping her as world number one. The Belarusian’s 99-week reign at the top of the rankings has effectively concluded, with Rybakina having secured the top spot after reaching the semi-finals.
This stakes-loaded backdrop provides Sabalenka with significant incentive ahead of Saturday’s clash, her fourth meeting with the Kazakh player this year. Former British number one Annabel Croft described the dynamic as “red rag to a bull,” suggesting Rybakina will be eager to capitalize on the opportunity. “Now she has the opportunity to end this year on a high,” Croft noted on BBC Radio 5 Live.
Sabalenka has previously defeated Rybakina in the finals of the Indian Wells and Miami opens following their encounter at the Australian Open. She is now pursuing a historic feat, aiming to become only the third woman in the Open era to win the New York singles title three consecutive times.
Her semi-final victory over American third seed Jessica Pegula was widely regarded as her strongest performance in months, characterized by a renewed sense of fire and freedom. Despite publicly downplaying the loss of her ranking, Sabalenka’s coaching team acknowledges its impact. Coach Anton Dubrov revealed the issue had been a mental burden, stating, “I actually like this happened. It’s ended and it’s extra fuel.” He added that the certainty of the change has removed draining anxiety, allowing Sabalenka to focus entirely on chasing the title again.
The path to the final was not without challenges. Over the preceding five months, the 28-year-old struggled to close out matches in decisive positions, most notably collapsing from a strong advantage against Diana Shnaider at the French Open quarter-finals. Similar mental lapses occurred on clay in Madrid and Rome, and she faced another setback against Sara Bejlek at the Cincinnati Open.
High performance coach Jason Stacy emphasized that the team provided Sabalenka with the space to find her rhythm without panic. “We just give her space to be herself,” Stacy said. “Giving her that freedom, but also knowing that she has the guidance of all of us, I think that just gives her a power that few are lucky enough to have.”
Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion, entered the tournament battling her own concerns after injuring her ankle at Cincinnati, which initially threatened her participation. However, she recovered sufficiently to cruise through her early rounds on the back of a dominant serve. Her victories over Zheng Qinwen and Coco Gauff demonstrated her physical durability.
Croft highlighted Rybakina’s unconventional preparation, noting that the player focused heavily on mental work rather than hitting balls during her recovery. “She has brought the freshness into this tournament,” Croft observed.
With both players overcoming pre-tournament doubts, they have re-established themselves as the WTA Tour’s leading figures. Their final matchup mirrors the Australian Open showpiece, closing the Grand Slam season where it began. Speaking on her mindset, Sabalenka said, “The mentality is just ‘I’m ready’. I’m ready for whatever it’s going to take to get the win.”
I still think Pegula exposed some cracks in Sabalenka’s closing games. Hope she learned from that French Open collapse.
Three-peat at the US Open? That would be historic. Sabalenka looks dangerous when she stops overthinking.
Rybakina staying healthy and fresh is the real variable here. If her serve is working, Sabalenka is in deep trouble.
It’s wild that losing the ranking actually liberated Sabalenka mentally. That ‘fuel’ approach is brilliant coaching.