The Atlantic hurricane season is on track to set a new record for suppressed activity as a historic and intensifying El Niño event keeps the basin eerily quiet. With no hurricanes forming to date despite the season typically peaking around September 10, meteorologists confirm that the longest stretch without an Atlantic hurricane since the start of the satellite era in the 1960s is now likely.
The previous record for the latest first hurricane formation was set on September 11 in both 2002 and 2013. By this point in an average season, forecasters would expect to see eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes. This year, however, activity has been limited to five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
Experts from the National Hurricane Center had predicted a below-average season back in May, forecasting between eight and 14 named storms, three to six of which would strengthen into hurricanes. The primary driver for this calm is the current El Niño phase, characterized by the natural warming of tropical Pacific waters. This phenomenon disrupts global weather patterns by increasing upper-level winds over the Atlantic, creating strong wind shear that tears apart developing thunderstorms before they can organize into tropical cyclones.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has described the current El Niño as “historic,” noting that it is expected to surpass the strength of any similar event recorded since 1950. It is projected to reach its peak intensity in November or December.
While the Atlantic remains dormant, the eastern Pacific has experienced a more active season, hosting 13 named storms including five hurricanes, three of which were classified as major. The most recent, Major Hurricane Lowell, recently impacted Hawaii with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf.
Adding to the suppression of Atlantic storm development is a significant layer of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert. Satellite imagery from Wednesday, September 9, revealed a vast brown haze suspended over the ocean as winds transported the dust thousands of miles from Africa. This arid atmospheric layer further inhibits storm growth and is expected to maintain quiet conditions across the Atlantic for at least the coming week. The official Atlantic hurricane season concludes on November 30.
Do we call it quiet or just lucky? Either way, I’m not complaining about the lack of storms hitting the coast this year.
It’s wild to think we’re nearly a month past peak season with no hurricanes. The satellite era records just keep getting rewritten.
Meanwhile Hawaii is getting hammered by Lowell. I wish the calm Atlantic weather would just send some of that activity elsewhere.
I’m skeptical about this being truly historic. El Niño patterns have suppressed storms before, even if records are being broken.
That Saharan dust layer is doing a lot of heavy lifting! Nature really is balancing things out this year.