Ethiopia’s Proposed Presidential Reform: Consolidation or Democratic Progress?

Since assuming office in 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has led the nation through significant turmoil, including the conflict in Tigray and a fragile peace agreement with Eritrea. Now, constitutional amendments under discussion could fundamentally alter the nation’s political landscape by potentially merging the presidency and prime ministership, placing significant executive power into a single office.

Following weeks of national dialogue in Addis Ababa, recommendations have emerged to establish a stronger presidential system. While the specifics remain under development, the proposal suggests shifting Ethiopia away from its current parliamentary framework toward a model where the president serves as the central political authority rather than holding a largely ceremonial role.

For Abiy, who currently commands substantial influence, this shift would formalize his dominance. His Prosperity Party secured a decisive victory in the June parliamentary elections, providing the legislative backing necessary to push such reforms through parliament.

Advocates argue that a directly elected president could foster a unified national identity in a country often fractured by ethnic and regional divisions. Befeqadu Hailu, a civil rights activist, noted that a presidential candidate would need to appeal across diverse ethnic and religious lines, potentially strengthening democratic engagement. However, he cautioned that presidential systems can also be more susceptible to authoritarian drift.

Critics point out that the concentration of power is less about expansion and more about codification. Abiy already oversees the military and security sectors, and the formation of the Prosperity Party in 2019 had already marginalized the opposition. British Ethiopia expert Martin Plaut described the reform as an effort to “formalize the situation that currently exists” rather than transfer new powers.

The legitimacy of the process has also drawn scrutiny. The national dialogue was boycotted by opposition parties and excluded influential armed factions, leading some to view it as a mere endorsement of the ruling party’s agenda. Furthermore, questions remain regarding the democratic validity of the recent elections, which were marred by restrictions in conflict zones and allegations of repression.

Despite the potential for structural change, analysts believe the reforms will not resolve Ethiopia’s deep-seated challenges. Armed conflicts persist in the Oromia and Amhara regions, the aftermath of the Tigray war continues to generate social and political division, and poverty remains widespread. Plaut suggested that until the tensions between the central government and Ethiopia’s numerous ethnic groups are addressed, changes to the leadership structure will amount to little more than a superficial fix.