Exit Polls Show Far-Right AfD Leading Saxony-Anhalt Election

MAGDEBURG, Germany — Exit polls from the Saxony-Anhalt state election indicate that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party holds a commanding lead, though its ability to establish the country’s first far-right regional government since World War II remains uncertain.

The AfD entered the vote seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature to govern independently, aiming to break the political firewall maintained by mainstream parties. A victory would represent the largest achievement in the party’s 13-year history, capitalizing on public dissatisfaction with the national government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has governed Saxony-Anhalt for two decades.

Polls from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF placed the AfD at approximately 44%, more than doubling its 2021 share of roughly 3% in the 2.1-million-person state west of Berlin. The CDU trailed significantly at an estimated 18.5%, having lost about half its previous support. The Left Party was projected to finish third with around 9%, while the Social Democrats and Greens each polled between 8% and 9%.

It remained unclear whether the BSW party would clear the 5% threshold required to enter the legislature. Despite the strong showing, exit polls suggested the AfD fell slightly short of the absolute majority needed for unilateral rule.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s 35-year-old candidate for state governor, declared to ARD that the party had “written history,” citing a voter desire for change. He also credited Merz as an effective campaigner for his opponents. Conversely, Franziska Hoppermann, national secretary of the CDU, described the results as a difficult outcome for her party. The AfD currently serves as the largest opposition group in Germany’s national parliament and retains its strongest support base in the eastern regions.