The United Nations has warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon is set to intensify significantly before reaching its peak in December, with projections suggesting it could become one of the most powerful events recorded since at least 1950. The forecast was released Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which highlighted the compounding danger posed by the natural cycle against the backdrop of human-driven climate change.
According to the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the event will likely push above-average temperatures across large portions of the globe while disrupting rainfall patterns, thereby escalating the risk of both droughts and floods in vulnerable regions.
Celeste Saulo, the WMO chief, emphasized the urgency of the situation. “El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” she stated. She noted that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are projected to hit record highs during the October-to-December period, a shift expected to drive significant weather variations and impact economies, ecosystems, and communities worldwide.
The organization’s prediction, based on consensus from 13 leading national and international meteorological centers, indicates a near-100 percent probability that El Nino will persist through February 2027.
Saulo clarified the thermal dynamics at play, explaining that El Nino does not generate new heat but rather releases energy stored in the ocean. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
Data from the WMO illustrates the rapid warming trend. The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific rose from 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June to 2.5 degrees Celsius in August. For the upcoming winter months, the anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal.
If realized, this figure would surpass the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius set during the 2015-2016 event, marking the highest anomaly since observations began. The previous El Nino cycle contributed to 2023 being the second-hottest year on record and 2024 becoming the hottest year ever recorded, with global temperatures averaging around 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
While El Nino typically peaks between November and February, temperature spikes often follow later. However, impacts are already being felt; Central America is currently experiencing severe drought conditions that have led to widespread crop failure and animal deaths.
Did anyone notice they said it peaks in December? My winter vacation plans might need a serious rethink this year.
100% probability through February 2027? That is an incredibly long commitment to extreme weather. Hard to prepare for that.
Central America’s droughts are happening now. This isn’t a distant forecast; people are losing crops and livestock today.
The ocean is just releasing stored heat. That detail about the ‘warmest ever measured’ really puts the climate crisis in perspective.
If 2024 was the hottest year, what does a record El Nino add? I’m truly scared for what comes next.