Tigray Conflict Risks Spilling into Eritrea as Abiy Ahmed Seeks Red Sea Access

As the Ethiopian military reclaims territory in the Tigray region, concerns are mounting that the conflict could escalate beyond Ethiopia’s borders and draw in Eritrea. Tensions were heightened shortly after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for a second term on Monday, when he reiterated his commitment to securing direct access to the Red Sea for the landlocked nation.

“Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea,” Abiy stated. Analysts warn that this rhetoric, combined with ongoing hostilities, risks aggravating relations with neighboring Eritrea, which has long been at odds with Addis Ababa over control of the strategic port of Assab.

According to DW correspondent Solomon Muchie, while the new mandate strengthens Abiy’s political authority, translating it into stability remains a significant challenge. Muchie pointed to a recent meeting in Cairo, where leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan discussed regional security issues without inviting Ethiopia, as evidence of the diplomatic isolation the government may face.

Abdurahman Sayed, who directs the Horn of Africa Center for Regional Integration in London, described the situation as an imminent threat of Eritrea entering the Tigray war. He noted that Ethiopia’s three-year campaign to secure the Assab port reflects a broader determination that could lead to military occupation if diplomatic efforts fail. “Without that port, Eritrea’s strategic significance would be reduced to almost nil,” Sayed explained, emphasizing the port’s importance for controlling the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea were severed last week, a move Sayed interprets as a signal that the Ethiopian government is prepared to pursue its maritime goals by force. This escalation follows the Ethiopian National Defence Forces’ recent takeover of Tigray’s capital, Mekelle. Pro-government media reported on Monday that troops were mobilizing toward the Eritrean border after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) retreated toward Adigrat, a key gateway to both Eritrea and the Red Sea.

Sayed highlighted the shared cultural and linguistic ties between Tigrayans and southern Eritreans, suggesting that a spillover effect is likely as rebel forces shift to guerrilla tactics. He accused the Ethiopian government of fabricating allegations that Eritrean troops are already fighting on Ethiopian soil, arguing that such claims are designed to justify a preemptive strike against Eritrea.

While global powers have been largely silent on the crisis, experts have welcomed renewed calls for diplomacy from the United States. The conflict’s dynamics are further complicated by Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti for trade. Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, a senior analyst at ACLED, noted that control over the route linking Djibouti to Addis Ababa remains a primary objective for the TPLF, mirroring strategies from previous conflicts.

Adding to the complexity, recent diplomatic shifts involving Israel’s recognition of Somaliland have altered regional alignments, with Djibouti occasionally coordinating with Eritrea and Egypt while attempting to maintain neutrality. However, both Ethiopia and Djibouti currently appear intent on preserving the lucrative trade corridor. Sayed warned that hyperinflation and potential shortages of oil and supplies could place immense pressure on the Ethiopian government. He suggested that disrupting Ethiopia’s access to Djibouti—home to major international military bases—could serve as the tipping point that forces global actors to intervene and demand a cessation of hostilities.