Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has secured a narrow lead over incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s first-round election, triggering a decisive run-off scheduled for October 25. The result surpasses pre-election polling forecasts and marks a significant shift in the political landscape, with Bolsonaro declaring victory and signaling the end of the Workers’ Party era.
Speaking to reporters in Brasilia on Sunday, the 45-year-old said, “Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results.” He received 47 percent of the vote, while the 80-year-old Lula, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, secured 45.1 percent. Since neither candidate crossed the 50 percent threshold required for an immediate win, the two former adversaries will face each other again just four years after Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio’s father.
The outcome has bolstered markets, with Brazil’s currency and stock指数 rising on expectations of a business-friendly administration. However, analysts warn that Lula faces a difficult path to redemption. Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor at Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, noted that the president cannot rely on voters who supported the other 10 candidates, nearly all of whom represented centre-right positions.
“Not only is he behind now after this first round, but the other candidates who received a total of nearly 8 percent are largely centre-right, which means the people who voted for these other candidates are very unlikely to shift for Lula,” Stuenkel told Al Jazeera. He added that Lula must now mobilize approximately 30 million Brazilians—21 percent of the electorate—who did not vote in the initial round.
Reporting from Rio de Janeiro, Al Jazeera’s Monica Yanakiew highlighted that Lula’s team has acknowledged their underperformance on social media compared to the right-wing camp, identifying it as a key area for improvement. Despite these potential adjustments, Stuenkel remains skeptical, stating that unless an extraordinary event occurs, Bolsonaro is poised to win. Historical precedent supports this view: no candidate who finishes second in a Brazilian first round has won the presidency since 1989.
Beyond the presidential race, the Bolsonaro family has consolidated significant legislative power. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady and Flavio’s stepmother, won a Senate seat in the Federal District. Carlos Bolsonaro, the former president’s second son, secured a Senate seat in Santa Catarina, while the youngest son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected to the Chamber of Deputies. The Liberal Party, led by Flavio, won 121 seats in the lower house, compared to 70 for Lula’s Workers’ Party.
Experts attribute much of this success to “antipetismo,” a strong sentiment of hostility toward Lula’s political movement. The implications of a potential Bolsonaro victory extend to foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with the United States and China. Lucía Newman, reporting from Sao Paulo, noted that Lula has been on a “collision course” with US President Donald Trump, a vocal supporter of the Bolsonaro camp. Brazil finds itself at the center of geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing.
If elected, Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to pursue congressional amnesty for his father, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup following the 2022 election. This move would require approval from the conservative-dominated Congress. Additionally, the younger Bolsonaro has echoed claims of electoral fraud and promised to release supporters imprisoned for their roles in the January 2023 insurrection in Brasilia, events reminiscent of the US Capitol riot.
Vinicius de Carvalho, a lecturer in Brazilian studies at King’s College London, pointed out that Latin America is experiencing a right-wing wave, with countries like Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, and Paraguay electing US-aligned governments. In contrast, Lula represents the “pink tide” of left-leaning leadership. Regardless of the final outcome, de Carvalho emphasized that Lula will need to respond to right-wing demands, particularly if he remains isolated in a conservative Congress.
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