As the 2026 midterm elections approach, CBS News’ Battleground Tracker is monitoring voter sentiment and key demographics across the country to assess the potential shift in control of the U.S. House of Representatives. While every district holds significance, nine Senate races and 42 House contests are viewed as decisive for majority control, with dynamics likely to evolve as the campaign progresses.
Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers, but they face headwinds due to public dissatisfaction with the Iran war and ongoing economic pressures related to the cost of living. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to secure control, while in the House, where seats are evenly divided at 218 Republicans, one independent caucusing with Republicans, and 214 Democrats, winning just one additional seat would grant them the majority.
In the Senate, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska faces former Rep. Mary Peltola in a top-four primary race. Although Alaska has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, Democrats view this as a potential pickup. In Iowa, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and state Rep. Josh Turek are competing for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, with affordability and tariff policies making the race more competitive than expected in the Republican-leaning state.
Other notable Senate matchups include Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson after Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew; Michigan, where former Rep. Mike Rogers challenges Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for Gary Peters’ vacant seat; and Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown seeks a comeback against Sen. Jon Husted.
Down the ballot, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces state Rep. James Talarico in a costly contest, while in Georgia, Rep. Mike Collins challenges Sen. Jon Ossoff. North Carolina’s open seat features former Gov. Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley, and New Hampshire’s race pits Rep. Chris Pappas against former Sen. John Sununu.
In the House, Republicans are targeting vulnerable Democratic seats, including Arizona’s 1st District, where Amish Shah challenges Republican Jay Feely, and California’s 13th District, where Rep. Adam Gray holds a narrow lead. Other watched races include contests in Florida’s 14th and 25th districts, Iowa’s open 2nd District, and Michigan’s 7th District, where GOP Rep. Tom Barrett faces William Lawrence over war powers issues regarding Iran.
Additional key House races span from Nebraska’s 2nd District to New York’s 3rd District, where Rep. Tom Suozzi defends his seat against Mike LePetri. As the election nears, these contests remain fluid, with candidates adjusting strategies based on polling and shifting voter priorities.
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Susan Collins facing Troy Jackson instead of Platner changes the whole dynamic. How will she perform?
I find it surprising that Iowa is considered toss-up now. Tariffs seem to have shaken things up.
Just one seat to flip the House? That is incredibly tight. Both parties are going all-in.
Iran war fatigue really seems to be the deciding factor here. Voters are clearly restless.
Alaska being competitive is a huge shift. I wonder if Peltola can close the gap in that top-four system.