Petrol and diesel prices across Europe continue to hover near historical highs, even as Brent crude oil trades around $95 a barrel\u2014well below its recent peak of $126. According to experts, the primary driver is no longer the cost of raw crude, but a severe constriction in refining capacity and finished product supply.<\/p>\n
The European Commission\u2019s Weekly Oil Bulletin reports that for the week beginning August 31, EU petrol averaged \u20ac1.95 per litre, roughly 4% below its June 2022 peak of \u20ac2.03. Diesel averaged \u20ac2.04, sitting about 3% below its April 2026 record of \u20ac2.11. These figures include duties and taxes, marking the first time since January 2005 that the Commission has compiled such an extensive historical series.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe key reason for the widening gap between crude and European fuel prices is that this is increasingly a refining and product-supply problem rather than simply a crude-supply problem,\u201d Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining supply and modelling at Kpler, told Euronews Business. \u201cCrude may be available, but the capacity to convert it into the right products\u2014particularly diesel\u2014has become much tighter.\u201d<\/p>\n
Internal combustion engines remain dominant on European roads. Data from ACEA indicates that 49.2% of passenger cars run on petrol and 38.4% on diesel, combining for 87.6% of the fleet. While electric vehicle registrations are growing, the infrastructure still relies heavily on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n
The scarcity of refined products has pushed margins to extreme levels. Eurobob E5 petrol barges recently traded at a premium of $62.07 a barrel over Brent futures, nearing the June 2022 record. Diesel futures hit a record premium of $78.91 a barrel over Brent before easing slightly to approximately $77.<\/p>\n
Alan Gelder, senior vice-president for refining, chemicals, and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, explained that Europe\u2019s dependence on imports exacerbates the issue. \u201cFor diesel and jet, Europe is the big importer, so it sets global prices,\u201d Gelder said. \u201cPrices are elevated here, but they\u2019re elevated everywhere. It\u2019s just more exacerbated in Europe because we\u2019re the key import location.\u201d<\/p>\n
Following Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe shifted its diesel and jet fuel sourcing toward the US, India, and the Middle East. However, conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries have disrupted these flows. Traditional buyers of Russian diesel, such as Turkey and Brazil, are now competing with European purchasers for supplies from alternative sources, tightening global markets.<\/p>\n
Inventory levels at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub reflect this strain. Independently held petrol stocks fell to 752,000 tonnes in late August, their lowest point since September 2021, according to Insights Global. Meanwhile, refineries in Europe and the US are operating at near-maximum capacity. US refinery utilisation reached approximately 98% in late August, while European runs are at their highest level in three to four years.<\/p>\n
Ritolia warned that the lack of spare capacity leaves the market vulnerable to disruptions. With the autumn maintenance season approaching and hurricane risks looming over US Gulf Coast refineries, operators face a delicate balance. Although high margins may encourage them to postpone maintenance, prolonged operation without servicing increases the risk of unplanned shutdowns.<\/p>\n
The impact of diesel prices extends beyond motorists. As the primary fuel for Europe\u2019s road freight, agriculture, and construction sectors, rising diesel costs contribute to broader inflation. Recent eurozone data shows inflation rising to 3.3%, largely driven by energy prices.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, analysts suggest limited seasonal relief. Ritolia noted that petrol prices might dip slightly as summer driving demand fades and markets switch to cheaper winter-grade fuel. Diesel, however, lacks this \u201crelease valve.\u201d Winter demand and tighter specifications could keep diesel margins elevated through the autumn and into winter.<\/p>\n
While increased exports from China and India could offer some cushion, Ritolia cautioned that China prioritizes domestic supply security, and sustained additional exports from India remain uncertain. Ultimately, analysts agree that a credible political agreement restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and recovering Middle Eastern exports are critical for stabilizing prices. \u201cWithout that, competition for available diesel cargoes is likely to remain strong,\u201d Ritolia said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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