Addis Ababa, Ethiopia \u2013 Nearly four years have passed since the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) signed the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022, aiming to halt a devastating two-year conflict. While large-scale hostilities have ceased, deep-seated political and territorial grievances remain, and the TPLF appears to have repositioned itself strategically while retaining significant military leverage.<\/p>\n
Article 7 of the accord explicitly prohibited the TPLF from conducting conscription, training, deployment, or mobilization of forces, as well as any preparations for renewed conflict. However, developments since 2024 indicate the movement has maintained an organizational and security role that the agreement was designed to diminish. This includes reported contacts with Eritrean officials in Dubai and Zalambessa, internal power struggles, allegations of recruitment, and the emergence of Tsimdo, a coalition of groups opposed to the federal government.<\/p>\n
Although there is no evidence the TPLF entered the peace deal with a premeditated plan to use it as a tactical pause, the trajectory suggests the conflict was only partially resolved. The disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) process outlined in Article 6 saw the surrender of heavy weapons and the entry of thousands of combatants into programs, but it failed to fully dismantle the region\u2019s military infrastructure.<\/p>\n
In 2026, reports surfaced of renewed recruitment and forced mobilization in Tigray. If verified, such activities would directly contravene Article 7\u2019s bans on conscription. A civilian source in Tigray, speaking anonymously, emphasized that the local population desires peace: \u201cThe people of Tigray want peace; we don\u2019t want a second war.\u201d<\/p>\n
Political instability within Tigray has further complicated the peace process. From 2024, the TPLF was engaged in intense internal debates over its future direction. In 2025, Getachew Reda was ousted as head of the interim administration and replaced by Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede. By May 2026, the Tigray regional council was reinstated, electing Debretsion Gebremichael as president, thereby consolidating the influence of his faction.<\/p>\n
Tensions escalated into armed clashes by early 2026. Tigray Defence Forces-aligned troops crossed the Tekeze River into the disputed Tselemt district in January, later taking control of Alamata and Korem following a federal withdrawal. Fighting resumed in western Tigray near the Sudanese border by August, marking a serious breach of the peace agreement with mutual blame between the federal government and TPLF.<\/p>\n
Beyond Tigray, the TPLF has sought new alliances. Despite a history of hostility, including a border war from 1998 to 2000 and subsequent cooperation with Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF during the 2020-22 war, reports indicate closer ties between the TPLF and Eritrea. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF as a proxy, a claim Eritrea denies.<\/p>\n
The formation of Tsimdo represents a broader realignment, involving cooperation among the TPLF, Fano, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and other armed groups. Fano leader Zemene Kassie confirmed the coalition\u2019s existence, though he stated Eritrea is not currently part of it. This convergence highlights a willingness among former enemies to set aside differences to pressure the federal government in Addis Ababa.<\/p>\n
Significant issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding the return of approximately 1.9 million displaced people. Many cannot return to contested areas such as Welkait, Tsegede, Humera, and Raya, where territorial disputes between Tigray and Amhara actors persist. The federal government has also failed to deliver on key aspects of the post-war settlement, although these shortcomings do not absolve the TPLF of its commitments under Pretoria.<\/p>\n
The Pretoria Agreement ended the war but did not resolve the underlying struggle for power, territory, and security. For Tigrayans, the uncertainty is palpable. A young man from the region expressed the growing despair among youth: \u201cThe fear of being drafted is what\u2019s making many youth lose hope.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Four years after the Pretoria Agreement, unresolved disputes and alleged TPLF military regrouping threaten Ethiopia’s fragile peace in Tigray.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[227,288,1722,33,1724,1723,1725,10],"class_list":["post-758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-world","tag-africa","tag-conflict","tag-ethiopia","tag-middle-east","tag-pretoria-agreement","tag-tigray","tag-tplf","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/758\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yovao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}