French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has increased her advantage in opinion polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election, according to a survey released on Monday. The new data indicates that Le Pen is currently positioned ahead of both centre-right candidate Édouard Philippe and hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the projected second-round run-off.
The survey, conducted by Toluna-Harris for French radio station RTL and television channel M6, suggests that Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party will secure between 35 and 36 percent of the vote in the first round of voting scheduled for April 18, 2027. This represents an increase from 33 percent in a previous poll published on September 14. In the subsequent second round on May 2, Le Pen is projected to defeat both Mélenchon, leader of the France Unbowed party, and Philippe, who is expected to gain only 13 to 16 percent of the vote, a figure likely insufficient to reach the final round.
The political shift follows recent legislative developments where the National Rally became the largest group in the National Assembly after President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections in 2024, although the party did not achieve a majority. Additionally, the RN recently formed a parliamentary group in the French Senate for the first time during the September indirect Senate elections. The French daily Le Monde described this move as a “warning,” noting that the results highlight how significantly the RN has embedded itself within French institutions within a decade.
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