Evolving El Niño Surpasses Historical Records Early in Cycle

The emerging El Niño climate pattern has officially become the most intense on record, according to researchers tracking sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. On September 19, daily temperatures in a critical central-eastern Pacific zone reached 3.05C above the long-term average, surpassing the previous benchmark of 3.02C set during the powerful 2015 event.

While broader, longer-term metrics have not yet broken records, forecasters anticipate this will change as the phenomenon approaches its peak later this year. The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which tracks these daily deviations, confirms the new record. However, other measurements such as the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) do not yet classify the current event as a record-breaker. RONI assesses warmth in the key region relative to the rest of the tropical oceans, accounting for background warming driven by climate change.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office, described the situation as unprecedented. “We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event,” he said. “The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño.”

El Niño is a recurring cycle, typically appearing every two to seven years and lasting approximately a year. It occurs when trade winds that usually blow across the Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to shift eastward. This releases heat into the atmosphere, influencing global weather patterns.

The impacts of this intense warming are already visible globally. In Indonesia, wildfires exacerbated by the conditions have affected approximately 12.5 million people, according to the country’s health ministry. India has also experienced a deficit in rainfall; data from the India Meteorological Department indicates that the southwest monsoon has delivered 15% less rain than usual through September 22.

Atlantic hurricane activity has similarly been suppressed. There have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin so far in 2026, marking the latest date without a storm formation since satellite monitoring began. Meanwhile, regions such as Brazil, Australia, and parts of the southern United States face heightened risks of drought and flooding, respectively.

For the United Kingdom, the effects are more indirect but significant. The Met Office has forecast increased rainfall and storminess for late autumn and early winter, particularly into November and December. Historical precedents include the severe winter of 2015-2016, which brought extreme flooding, though links to cold spells remain inconsistent, as evidenced by the contrasting winters of 2006-2007 and 2009-2010.

As this historic event moves toward its expected climax at the end of 2026, scientists continue to monitor its development and its cascading effects on food security, economies, and weather systems worldwide.