International Break: Can the Extended Pause Intensify Pressure on Struggling Managers?

The upcoming three-week international break has ignited speculation about whether struggling Premier League and Championship managers will face premature dismissals. While only two coaches—Paul Heckingbottom at Preston North End and Michael Duff at Wycombe Wanderers—have been sacked so far this season, several others are bracing for intense scrutiny as players depart for national team duties.

Fulham manager Alvaro Arbeloa and Manchester United’s Michael Carrick are set to clash at Craven Cottage on Sunday in what serves as the final fixture before the hiatus. For Arbeloa, the pressure is already mounting; he has failed to secure a win in his first four Premier League matches, suffering three defeats. Compounding the issue are reports of unrest within the squad linked to players’ social media activity, adding to the challenges of his second stint managing Real Madrid’s first team last season.

At Old Trafford, Carrick finds himself under similarly fierce lights following a 3-2 EFL Cup exit to Brighton. The defeat marked the first time since 1976 that Manchester United surrendered a two-goal home lead, following a recent 1-0 loss to ten-man Manchester City. With victories limited to matches against Ipswich Town and Sabah, results are paramount for the United boss.

Historical data suggests that mid-season sacking during international breaks remains uncommon. Over the past decade, only Javi Gracia at Watford (2019) and Nuno Espirito Santo at Nottingham Forest (2023) lost their jobs during a September break, while Francesco Guidolin (Swansea, 2016) and Xisco Munoz (Watford, 2021) were dismissed in October. November, however, has proven to be a more volatile month, with six managerial changes recorded in the last ten campaigns.

Former Stoke, West Brom, and Middlesbrough manager Tony Pulis argues that while the current September pause is too early to trigger immediate action, subsequent breaks in October, post-Christmas, and early March create critical windows for clubs to install new leaders. Pulis notes these intervals allow appointees time to settle, assess staff, and implement their principles ahead of FA Cup fixtures or league resumption.

“Personally, I’ve joined quite a few of my clubs midway through seasons… I do honestly believe that those international breaks… definitely heighten the chances of struggling managers getting the sack,” Pulis said. “But I don’t see this September break as a flashing light… While the evidence suggests things have to get pretty bad for a club to change manager early in the season, a few bosses are feeling the heat.”

For Manchester United, the impending trip to Fulham is not viewed as a definitive “make or break” moment for Carrick, who recently guided the club to Champions League qualification. However, a loss to the bottom-of-the-table Cottagers would reignite external debate and focus attention intensely when they resume play against Tottenham on October 10.

At Fulham, tactical shifts introduced by Arbeloa have left the defense vulnerable, though a recent goalless draw at Liverpool showed promise. Owner Shahid Khan has a history of ruthless decision-making, having sacked Claudio Ranieri after just 106 days and Felix Magath in September 2014.

Elsewhere, Tottenham’s Roberto de Zerbi faces no immediate pressure despite six winless games, with the board remaining optimistic about the team’s developing style. At Crystal Palace, Pierre Sage received a boost from a Europa League victory over Lech Poznan, but a league defeat to Leeds could worsen his position given the team’s leaky defense and absences of key attackers Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta.

In the Championship, Burnley’s Nicky Hayen admitted he is under pressure after his side dropped to rock-bottom following a draw with Derby. Meanwhile, Watford’s Alessio Dionisi, the club’s 27th permanent manager in under 18 years, sits three points above the relegation zone and may face a change if owner Gino Pozzo intervenes early.