Houthi Advances in Yemen Threaten Saudi Oil and Global Markets

CAIRO — A week after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched their most significant territorial offensive in years, the movement has reached a critical maritime chokepoint and is directly threatening Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. The blitzkrieg along the Red Sea coast has reignited the nation’s 12-year civil war and triggered spikes in global fuel prices.

The conflict has displaced approximately 125,000 Yemenis, adding to the more than 150,000 lives lost since the war began and pushing the country repeatedly to the brink of famine. Strategically, the gains provide Tehran with renewed leverage as the United States has recently worked to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, located on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.

Houthi forces have captured the important Red Sea port city of Mokha and seized several islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This waterway is a vital artery for global commerce, handling roughly 12% of world trade during peacetime. Additionally, the rebels are now positioned just 32 kilometers (20 miles) from Djibouti, a small African nation that hosts U.S. and other international military bases.

Alongside these ground gains, the Houthis are attacking Saudi oil facilities and tankers. Compounding the crisis for Riyadh, an attack on a key east-west pipeline—blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq—further rattled international markets.

The rebels’ current objective appears to be Yemen’s oil-rich eastern regions. So far, the primary obstacles are Yemen’s Saudi-backed government and various local forces that were engaged in fighting as recently as January. However, the United States, Saudi Arabia’s most important ally, appears to be holding back from direct intervention in this phase of the conflict.

This marks the second time the Houthis have swept south from their northern stronghold; they first captured the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen in 2014, prompting Saudi Arabia to intervene in 2015. A ceasefire was eventually reached in 2022, but recent days have seen intense combat around Marib, a central hub for both oil production and Saudi-backed military operations. The Houthis also pose a continuing threat to the western city of Taiz, which has served as a frontline for much of the war.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis’ political bureau, told The Associated Press that the group aims to pressure Saudi Arabia into lifting its long-running blockade on Houthi-controlled territories. “It is Saudi Arabia that closed the Bab el-Mandeb strait to shipping traffic to and from Yemen and imposed an unjust blockade on the country,” he stated.

Historically, Riyadh and its allies have struggled to contain or deter the insurgents. Analysts suggest the kingdom may now be tempted to pursue a diplomatic resolution to halt the attacks, a move that would likely require concessions to Iran, the only regional power with sufficient influence over the Houthis.