Russia holds first parliamentary vote since Ukraine invasion amid economic strain

Russians are heading to the polls from Friday through Sunday to elect members of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. This marks the first legislative election since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The vote takes place against a backdrop of a slowing economy and increasing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and storage facilities deep behind the front lines.

The ruling United Russia party, which has supported President Vladimir Putin since its formation in 2001, is projected to maintain its overwhelming majority. The Kremlin has framed the contest as an opportunity for public input, while opponents argue the outcome is predetermined due to the exclusion of authentic political rivals.

Beyond the federal parliament, voters in 11 regions will choose their governors, and 39 regions will select members for their local legislatures. To accommodate the 111 million eligible voters, polling stations will remain open for three days, including in territories currently occupied by Russia in Ukraine. Electronic voting options are also available.

Half of the Duma’s 450 seats will be allocated via party lists, while the remaining half will be filled through single-mandate constituencies. The United Russia lineup features prominent figures such as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. In a move to inject new faces into the largely bureaucratic party, war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny, who was severely injured by a drone strike, holds the third position on the ballot. Party members have publicly committed to supporting the war effort and Putin’s strategic objectives in Ukraine.

Other parties expected to secure seats include the Communist Party, led for over thirty years by 82-year-old Gennady Zyuganov, and the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party. Both groups, along with the social-democratic A Just Russia, generally align with government positions on key issues, including the conflict in Ukraine. The Communist Party has historically avoided direct criticism of Putin despite opposing certain policy details.

A notable change this cycle is the removal of Yabloko, the only registered party opposing the war. The Supreme Court disqualified the party in August, ruling that its antiwar stance threatened Russia’s territorial integrity. Yabloko is now restricted to running candidates in single-ballot races only.

Political analyst Alexander Bratersky noted that the competition for second place is significant. If the Communist Party secures that position, it could indicate voter frustration with declining living standards. Meanwhile, the New People Party, founded in 2021, is being viewed by some as a substitute for Yabloko. Bratersky suggested that a strong showing by New People could signal that antiwar voters are using it as a legal proxy for their views.

Smaller entities on the ballot include the Communists of Russia, the Party of Pensioners, the Green Party, the Party of Direct Democracy, and the Motherland Party.

The significance of this election extends beyond routine politics. Bratersky highlighted that the Kremlin is aware these votes serve as the only legal mechanism for expressing dissent. President Putin recently stated that United Russia’s duty is to ensure victory in Ukraine, reflecting internal concerns about public sentiment, even among his core supporters who harbor resentment toward the governing party’s perceived corruption.

Historically, United Russia has won every Duma election since Putin assumed power in 2000. However, results have faced repeated scrutiny. The 2011 elections triggered the largest protests of Putin’s tenure following allegations of fraud, and independent analysts claimed in 2021 that the party’s actual support was significantly lower than official figures indicated. Authorities continue to deny widespread electoral misconduct.