The UK government’s “one in, one out” migration arrangement with France has incurred an average cost of £56,000 per migrant returned, according to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. This figure exceeds the Home Office’s initial estimate of £48,800 for enforced returns.
Speaking to Members of Parliament, Mahmood acknowledged that scaling up the policy had proven difficult and that the volume of cases remained “relatively small.” She revealed that approximately 1,400 individuals had been deported under the scheme since its inception in August 2025.
When asked by Conservative MP Robbie Moore whether the initiative should be deemed a success, Mahmood affirmed that it had demonstrated viability. “On its own terms, can you prove the concept that such a deal is viable, that you can get returns off and up and running – yes,” she said. However, she noted operational challenges in increasing the pace of weekly removals into the French system.
The agreement, which pairs the return of Channel migrants with the admission of an equivalent number of French nationals with legitimate claims to enter the UK, was originally scheduled to conclude in June 2026. It has since been extended to October. The policy aims to deter dangerous Channel crossings, and Mahmood indicated that reports from the UN and other agencies suggest some potential migrants are now hesitating to board small boats due to hopes of qualifying under the bilateral deal.
Recent data indicates a significant drop in illegal Channel crossings. Between January 1 and September 14, 2026, 17,425 people arrived in the UK by small boat, marking a 44% decrease compared to the same period last year. The National Crime Agency attributed the decline partly to effective law enforcement and disrupted supply chains for boats caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
Historical data shows that while 2026 figures are on track to be the fifth highest at this point in the calendar year, the total represents only about 5% of overall immigration into the UK. Eritrea remains the largest source country for arrivals, accounting for 18% of detections between July 2025 and June 2026, followed by Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Iran.
They said the volume was small, yet nearly 1,400 people have been sent back since August. Sounds pretty effective to me.
Wait, so we’re letting French nationals in just to deport migrants out? That feels like a logistical nightmare waiting to happen.
44 percent down is a huge statistic though. Maybe the cost is worth it if it stops people risking their lives on those boats.
Fifty-six grand per head is insane. I suppose the drop in arrivals shows some deterrence, but where is the money coming from?