Ukraine and Russia Prepare for New US-Mediated Peace Talks

Kyiv and Moscow have indicated a willingness to restart trilateral peace discussions under American mediation, with preliminary preparations targeting the month of October. This potential diplomatic effort comes as both nations face intensifying military pressure and a looming winter crisis.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, confirmed that preparations are underway. Similarly, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow has not ruled out the possibility of talks in the near future. These signals follow visits to both capitals by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner earlier in September, aimed at reviving negotiations to conclude Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The last round of such talks, held in Abu Dhabi and Geneva during January and February 2026, ended abruptly without a breakthrough. A primary obstacle remains the issue of territorial control. US envoy Jared Kushner revealed on September 12 that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand additional territory beyond areas currently occupied by Russian forces. However, Kushner noted that the current Ukrainian government is unwilling to withdraw to those lines.

Recent polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology suggests that while approximately 60% of Ukrainians support freezing the conflict along the current frontline in exchange for security guarantees, a similar majority rejects ceding any territory that Russian forces have failed to capture. Only 33% of respondents indicated support for yielding land to satisfy Putin’s demands.

Despite potential diplomatic openings, the military situation remains precarious for Ukraine. Experts note that while the ground war has reached a stalemate, Russia holds a distinct advantage in the air. Ukraine is experiencing shortages of interceptors for Russian ballistic missiles, and Moscow has increased reliance on faster, jet-powered drones that are more difficult to detect and destroy.

Russian airstrikes have increasingly targeted Ukraine’s economic infrastructure, including energy facilities, warehouses, and rail networks. The Kremlin has accused Kyiv of escalating the conflict by striking Russian fuel and energy sites, a move Ukraine describes as necessary to force Moscow to the negotiating table. However, UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell argued that such Russian escalation is a sign that Kyiv’s strategy is working, urging Western allies to maintain pressure.

Concerns about the upcoming winter are mounting in Ukraine. Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko warned of severe challenges related to destroyed critical infrastructure and economic strain, recalling the blackouts and heating failures experienced during the winter of 2025.

In light of these issues, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed a partial de-escalation as a first step toward negotiations. Instead of a full ceasefire, which Moscow has rejected, Zelenskyy is calling for an end to attacks on energy infrastructure and the unblocking of grain exports through the Black Sea. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko suggested that an agreement on grain shipments could be more achievable than an energy truce, given that both sides currently suffer from blocked ports.

Diplomatic tensions were further highlighted when the Kremlin declined Zelenskyy’s proposal for a meeting between the two leaders at the G20 summit in Miami in December. Fesenko observed that Putin prefers to negotiate directly with Donald Trump rather than with Zelenskyy. Nevertheless, Zelenskyy maintained that only the presidents themselves can resolve the complex territorial questions, even if initial talks are conducted by negotiating teams.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump added pressure on Kyiv, urging Zelenskyy to stop targeting Russian diesel fuel supplies, arguing that such attacks harm the global market. As October approaches, the path to peace remains complicated by entrenched positions on territory, air superiority, and infrastructure security.