Record-Breaking ‘Super El Niño’ Expected to Shape Fall and Winter Weather Across the US and Globally

As autumn approaches, meteorologists are issuing warnings about a potentially historic climate phenomenon: a “super El Niño.” Experts anticipate this record-strength event will significantly influence global temperatures and precipitation patterns, heightening the risk of extreme weather across various regions.

El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, are natural climate oscillations in the tropical Pacific. During El Niño phases, central and eastern Pacific waters become warmer than average, triggering widespread weather disruptions. Conversely, La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures.

Risper Nyairo, an assistant professor of environmental studies at Davidson College, highlighted the intensity of the coming shift. “Pacific sea surface temperatures are going to vary at least two degrees from the average,” Nyairo said. “That means the Pacific waters are going to be warmer than normal, and we can expect a lot of evaporation.” This increased evaporation can lead to heavier rainfall in some areas while exacerbating droughts over land.

Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, noted that ocean conditions are trending toward unprecedented warmth. While El Niño typically peaks in late fall and winter, this event is expected to persist into early 2027. Combined with ongoing climate change, Ralph warned that 2027 could become the warmest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization has similarly cautioned that a strong El Niño increases the likelihood of severe weather events next year.

Global impacts are already being projected. Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Africa, including Zambia and Zimbabwe, are likely to experience drier-than-average conditions. In contrast, parts of South America such as Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay, along with East African nations, are expected to see above-average rainfall.

For the United States, experts suggest the situation may not be as alarming as the term “monster El Niño” implies. Patrick Rafter, an assistant professor at the College of Marine Science at USF, stated, “For the most part, I don’t see a monster El Niño event as anything the continental U.S. has to be overly concerned with.” Historically, these events bring warmer winters to the northern US and cooler, wetter conditions to the south, which can also increase tornado frequency in rain-heavy zones.

Nyairo added that while Atlantic hurricane activity tends to diminish during El Niño years—consistent with a peak season that has seen no storms so far—tornado activity may intensify. Meanwhile, the Pacific has experienced an unusually active hurricane season. On the US West Coast, larger waves and higher sea levels are expected, alongside increased wildfire risks in dry areas.

However, predictions remain uncertain due to other climate variables. Ralph pointed out that phenomena like the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation can alter weather patterns independently. Additionally, atmospheric rivers—narrow corridors of moisture in the atmosphere—can disrupt typical El Niño forecasts, particularly in California. Ralph observed that since 2000, some Southern California regions expected to be dry during El Niño years have instead seen unusually wet conditions.

Despite regional uncertainties, the potential for lasting societal impacts is significant. “The increased rainfall or intense drought cascades into other impacts on society,” Nyairo said. “Lives may be lost in unprepared societies. There could be property damage. There could be other related natural hazards… There is a myriad of impacts.”