US-Canada Trade War Impacts Key Swing States Ahead of Midterms

A escalating trade dispute between the United States and Canada is creating economic anxiety in several northern border states that are pivotal to the upcoming November midterm elections. Analysts warn that tit-for-tat tariffs could disproportionately hurt consumers and businesses in regions like Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, where Senate races are proving to be highly competitive.

Garret Denniston, chief executive of Barters Island Bees in Maine, experienced the volatility firsthand. His company, which produces honey flavors such as “Gentle Ginger” and “Blueberry Lemon,” saw sales plummet last year when a drop in Canadian tourism slashed revenue at farmers’ markets. However, revenue has surged 75% this year as tensions appeared to ease and Canadian visitors returned. Despite the rebound, Denniston expressed concern that a renewed trade spat could reverse this progress. When asked if the trade war could influence Maine’s Senate race, he replied, “Oh, absolutely. It definitely can.”The current levies target $20 billion in Canadian goods, potentially raising prices on imports ranging from orchids to hockey sticks. Simultaneously, retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada on Tuesday threaten to reduce sales for American exporters. Tyler Schipper, an economics professor at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, noted that the border is often an arbitrary line, making cross-border trade vital for nearby communities.

While the tariffs currently affect only 6% of U.S. exports to Canada and 5% of Canadian imports into the U.S., the impact is concentrated in specific regions. According to a late-month analysis by the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Canada is the leading foreign buyer of exports for 26 U.S. states and the top import source for 22 states. Maine and Michigan rank among the top 10 states for combined trade volume with Canada, while Ohio is 15th. Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota also feature prominently on the list.

“Someone in Oklahoma doesn’t feel this as much as someone in Dearborn, Michigan,” said Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University. He emphasized that trade remains simpler and cheaper over short distances, noting that “business-to-business relationships still matter” and transportation costs increase with distance.

The auto industry in Michigan is already feeling the strain. In spring 2025, President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts, which cost automakers $12.5 billion in duties last year despite exemptions for goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Last month, Trump threatened to raise those tariffs to 50% on Canadian-made vehicles starting in January, without mentioning USMCA exemptions.

Glenn Stevens Jr., executive director of MichAuto, stated that such a move would be “untenable” and could decimate supply chains, leading to higher consumer prices and job losses. He added that trade policy has become a central issue in the current political season.

In Michigan’s Senate race, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has attacked Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, calling him a “rubber stamp” for Trump’s trade strategy. El-Sayed claimed on social media that Trump is escalating the conflict for “vanity.” Conversely, the White House defended the tariffs, with spokesperson Desai stating they aim to protect American workers and farmers from “lopsided trade relations.”In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins warned that the tariffs increase costs and uncertainty for families and businesses, a point amplified by her Democratic challenger, former state senator Troy Jackson. Jackson labeled the tariffs a “direct tax on working families,” citing his experience working along the border.

Despite the economic concerns, not all voters are letting trade policy dictate their choices. Fred Fritz, a retiree in East Lansing, Michigan, criticized the tariffs but remains undecided in the Senate race, stating, “I don’t like either candidate.” As the midterms approach, the intersection of international trade disputes and domestic politics continues to draw scrutiny in key swing states.