Ukraine is preparing for what could be the year’s most severe combat operations in the Donetsk region this autumn, according to Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Speaking to Reuters, Kofman indicated that Russian forces may attempt new mechanized assaults between September and October, a window during which deteriorating weather conditions could reduce the efficacy of Ukrainian drones.
Kofman noted that Russian military doctrine typically seeks to restore battlefield mobility during such periods, yet he emphasized that Kyiv has established robust defenses against these types of maneuvers. He pointed to the failed Russian attack near the city of Dobropillia in July as evidence of Ukraine’s improved tactical resilience.
Despite these defensive successes, the strategic situation remains precarious. Russian troops have advanced to within 15 kilometers (9 miles) of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which serve as critical hubs in Ukraine’s defensive “fortress belt.” Regional authorities report that both cities are enduring escalating aerial attacks involving drones and guided bombs.
Amidst these threats, the United Kingdom and European Union are moving to accelerate military support, including the potential provision of missile aid. Kyiv has also been booked for approximately 1,000 Patriot interceptor missiles to bolster its air defense capabilities against the intensifying Russian air campaign.
I worry about the autumn rains anyway. Will drones still be effective once the ground turns to mud?
Good to see the West stepping up. Those Patriot missiles are a game-changer for air defense.