The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on Monday that an intensifying El Nino has set a new temperature benchmark in a critical Pacific monitoring zone. The event, which global forecasters have long predicted would become the strongest on record, has already surpassed historical peaks despite occurring well before its anticipated maximum later this year.
In the Nino3.4 region, a key indicator for tracking El Nino activity, sea surface temperatures reached 29.70C in September, marking an “all-time high.” This figure exceeds the highs recorded during previous major events in 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016, highlighting the current phenomenon’s extraordinary intensity.
However, Copernicus cautioned that it cannot yet definitively label this the strongest El Nino ever documented. Because human-caused climate change is inherently raising ocean temperatures, modern El Nino events may appear more severe than those from the past, complicating direct comparisons. The service noted that a newer index accounting for this baseline tropical ocean warming suggests the current event is not yet stronger than historical records. Despite this nuance, officials stated that the September data points to an exceptionally powerful El Nino, particularly given that the event has not yet peaked.
Japan’s meteorological agency offered a different perspective, announcing on Friday that El Nino conditions had reached their “strongest intensity on record,” with temperatures in the monitoring area running 4C above normal. Forecasting bodies utilize varying scales to interpret these climate patterns.
Beyond the Pacific, Copernicus revealed that global average sea surface temperatures hit a record 21.05C in September, surpassing the previous high of 20.92C set in 2023. Globally, September was the second hottest on record, with surface air temperatures averaging 16.27C—1.63C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.
These figures pose significant challenges to the Paris Agreement targets. Nations agreed in 2015 to keep global warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5C. Yet, the UN declared in September that the long-term 1.5C target would be missed within years.
“We are in a new run of months above 1.5C, and with a strong El Nino still intensifying it is likely to last into 2027,” said Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo. “Crossing the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit is only a matter of time. How far we overshoot, and for how long, is still up to us.”
Another record broken. It feels like we are just resetting the baseline for disaster instead of actually solving anything.
My coastal city is already dealing with insane tides. If the peak hits later this year, pray we are prepared.
I hope people understand this isn’t just a weather cycle. The 1.5C target is effectively gone for the near future.
Wait, Japan says it is the strongest ever, but Copernicus isn’t sure? The metric disparity is making my head spin.
It is terrifying to think this intensifies on top of an already warming baseline. We are watching history unfold in real time.