The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has created a severe logistical crisis for Ukrainian agriculture, leaving farmers with massive surpluses they cannot sell profitably. With storage facilities in both nations overflowing with grain that cannot reach international markets, many agrarians are questioning whether it makes sense to plant crops for the 2027 harvest.
Oleksandr Chumak, a farmer in Ukraine’s Odesa region, reported strong yields this season but said he has exhausted his patience after eleven years of operation. Approximately 80% of his grain cannot be sold at a profit, and he is currently out of cash. “For the farmers, it’s very difficult because we need to pay taxes, we need to pay rent for land, and now we are not able to do this because we are not able to sell anything,” said Andrii Dykun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council.
The blockade stems from intensified Russian drone and missile strikes on Black Sea infrastructure over the summer and into fall, which have made it impossible to insure commercial vessels. In retaliation, Kyiv’s attacks have similarly stalled Russian exports, creating a dual bottleneck that is squeezing global supply chains.
PrivateBank, Ukraine’s largest lender, disclosed that it disbursed 1.53 billion hryvnia ($34.2 million) in working capital to agribusinesses between June and August, more than double the 718 million hryvnia lent during the same period last year. Yevhen Zaihraiev, chief corporate and SME business officer at the bank, noted that funds remain trapped in inventory while farms struggle to cover operating costs.
“Funds effectively remain tied up in grain inventories, while farms still need to cover their ongoing operating expenses and secure financing for the autumn and spring sowing campaigns,” Zaihraiev said. He added that some producers are selling crops early at lower prices to maintain liquidity, while others with storage access are waiting for better market conditions.
Ukrainian grain and oilseed production is forecast to rise to 85 million tonnes from 80 million tonnes this year, further straining already limited storage infrastructure. These facilities, including plastic silobags and metal elevators, are increasingly vulnerable to military strikes.
In response to the crisis, many farmers are revising planting strategies to focus on oilseeds and niche crops that are less dependent on expensive logistics. Chumak plans to significantly reduce planting next year, avoiding corn and barley entirely in favor of crops requiring less fertilizer, which is also facing global shortages due to the conflict involving Iran.
Before the war began in early 2022, Ukraine and Russia collectively supplied over half the world’s sunflower oil, nearly a fifth of its barley, and 14% of its wheat. Ukraine remains a top exporter of corn, with China and the EU as major buyers. However, about 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports typically travel via the Black Sea. In August alone, grain and legume exports dropped 58% year-on-year to 981,000 tonnes.
The disruption coincides with weaker harvests in Europe and the United States, raising concerns about global food security. While Canada, Australia, Argentina, and parts of the Middle East and North Africa have seen good harvests that are currently cushioning the impact, experts warn this could change rapidly.
Benoit Fayaud, senior manager for grains and oilseeds analysis at Expana, stated that a deal restoring exports from both countries would unleash a wave of cheap supply that could “flip the market fast” with little warning, causing prices in other regions to drop significantly.
Alternative routes through Poland, Romania, and the Danube River have proven insufficient. Poland and Romania resist allowing grain transit due to fears of local market gluts, while low water levels and damaged infrastructure further hinder river transport. Land routes through the Baltic states or Georgia can only handle a small fraction of normal flows.
Dykun emphasized that without access to Black Sea ports, the current system is unsustainable for farmers. “It would always be cheaper for us… to sell the grain to other ports from Black Sea ports because it’s much more profitable for the farmers than to sell it via the border to the EU,” he said. “So without Black Sea ports, it will not work for us at all.”
As Turkey ramps up efforts to broker a ceasefire deal amidst growing risks to global food security, the outlook for a resolution remains uncertain, with fatal attacks on civilian shipping continuing into October.
I thought the Black Sea corridor was fixed? The article says exports dropped 58% in August—something is very wrong with these logistics.
This is terrifying. If Ukrainian farmers quit planting, global food prices will skyrocket beyond imagination.