The Swedish Academy is poised to reveal the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature recipient imminently, with Canadian poet Anne Carson and Chinese experimental writer Can Xue emerging as the bookmakers’ top choices. Ladbrokes has listed both authors at 10/1 odds to take the honor.
While Carson and Can Xue lead the field, other prominent contenders include Japanese author Haruki Murakami at 14/1, alongside Gerald Murnane and Thomas Pynchon, both priced at 16/1. Notable writers such as Salman Rushdie, Margaret Atwood, and Jamaica Kincaid are also in contention but sit at longer odds.
Recent years have seen a strong association between certain publishers and the prestigious award. London-based Fitzcarraldo Editions has successfully identified future laureates prior to their announcement, boasting four Nobels across its catalog. The press published works by 2015 winner Svetlana Alexievich, 2018 laureate Olga Tokarczuk, 2022 winner Annie Ernaux, and 2023 recipient Jon Fosse. It also added 2004 laureate Elfriede Jelinek to its roster in 2021.
Carson, born in Toronto in 1950, is a distinguished poet, essayist, translator, and former classics professor whose work often blends genres. Her breakthrough came with the 1998 verse novel “Autobiography of Red,” which reimagines Greek myth through a queer coming-of-age narrative. In 2001, she became the first woman to win the T.S. Eliot Prize for her collection “The Beauty of the Husband.” She is also a recipient of Guggenheim and MacArthur fellowships.
Can Xue, born Deng Xiaohua in 1953, is known for her dreamlike, stream-of-consciousness prose influenced by Western writers like Kafka and Shakespeare. Growing up during China’s Cultural Revolution, she experienced significant personal turmoil, including her parents’ sentencing to manual labor. She has been longlisted for the International Booker Prize twice, in 2019 and 2021.
The selection process involves the 18 members of the Swedish Academy, a group comprising literary historians, lawyers, linguists, and journalists. The committee narrows hundreds of nominations down to a shortlist of five, which is reviewed throughout the summer before the October announcement. This year, the inclusion of Anna Hallberg, a poet elected in May 2026, has led some observers to predict a poetic winner.
Last year’s prize was awarded to Hungarian novelist László Krasznahorkai, recognized for his “compelling and visionary oeuvre that, in the midst of apocalyptic terror, reaffirms the power of art.” Born in 1954, Krasznahorkai gained international fame with his 1985 novel “Satantango,” which features extraordinarily long sentences and has been adapted into a celebrated seven-hour film by Béla Tarr.
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