TEHRAN — The United States is intensifying its combined military and economic pressure on Iran, a strategy that has prompted Tehran to announce it will respond with greater force. On Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) released video footage purporting to show strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers. According to the command, one vessel was hit near Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub; a second was targeted near Jask; and a third was struck in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM reported that two of the tankers were permanently disabled and the third sank following extensive bombing.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) broadcast its own footage showing explosives-laden projectiles impacting multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement issued Sunday, the IRGC declared that the United States had no option but to withdraw from the region and end what it described as malignancy. The group also claimed to have hit a US-built sea drone attempting to enter Iranian waters in the critical waterway, which carries approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies during peacetime.
The IRGC further alleged that it had launched several ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and another warship participating in the months-long naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports. While the group claimed both vessels sustained damage and fled, CENTCOM stated the attacks were evaded. No immediate evidence confirmed successful hits. The IRGC characterized the US acknowledgment of the missile launches as evidence of “strategic defeat” and proof of its offensive capabilities.
Speaking to members of parliament on Sunday, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf asserted that Iran had dealt “significant blows” to US bases throughout the region, causing frustration among Washington’s leadership. Ghalibaf, who also serves as Iran’s chief negotiator with the US, warned that the era of “proportionate responses” had ended and that recent strikes were merely the beginning. He cautioned that any further attacks on Iranian interests would be met with “faster, heavier and more painful” counterstrikes.
The Foreign Ministry condemned the US attacks on Iranian ships as illegal and a “war crime” violating the United Nations Charter. Meanwhile, discrepancies persist between US and Iranian assessments of the blockade’s effectiveness. The Trump administration claims that vessel traffic through the Strait has approached pre-conflict levels recently, despite Iranian threats. Conversely, Iranian authorities maintain the strait remains closed.
The US military reports that approximately 90 commercial vessels have been redirected as part of the blockade, with additional ships disabled or boarded. Data from TankerTrackers indicates that Middle East crude oil exports dropped 39 percent in August compared to a January-February baseline of 18.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). The current deficit stands at 7.2mbpd, down from 12.4mbpd in May.
TankerTrackers noted that while most disruptions may recover in coming months, Iran’s exports—previously averaging 1.68mbpd—could remain at zero depending on any future agreements. Iranian officials confirmed they have been unable to move crude past US warships but highlighted that up to 90 million barrels were exported during the brief period a June memorandum of understanding with the US was active. Some oil remains in floating storage outside the blockade, allowing sales to China at discounted rates despite sanctions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that approximately 30 million barrels of Iranian crude remain for China to purchase, predicting these supplies will soon be exhausted. He praised the “one-two punch” of the blockade and sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, aimed at isolating Iran’s trade with neighboring countries.
While Iran has not disclosed how long it can sustain these alternative sales or explore other routes, experts note that overland and rail transport cannot replace the volume moved by large tankers through the Hormuz strait. In response to mounting economic challenges, including high inflation and unemployment, Iran’s Economy Ministry established an “economic war headquarters” on Sunday. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi argued that the US is suffering disproportionate economic damage, citing reduced strategic energy reserves and decreased regional aluminum exports.
Fascinating how both CENTCOM and the IRGC claim victory simultaneously. Classic information war tactics at play.
Escalation doesn’t solve anything. If Iran really closes the strait, it’s a geopolitical nightmare for everyone involved.
Whoever is right about traffic levels? Both sides are spinning the narrative. The actual data on exports is what matters here.
The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for global energy. This blockade is a ticking bomb for oil prices everywhere.