Middle East Oil Exports Surpass Pre-War Levels Despite Hormuz Unrest

Gulf crude oil exports have rebounded to levels surpassing those recorded before the Iran war, even as hostility continues in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, non-Iranian exports rose above the pre-war average of approximately 18 million barrels per day (bpd) during the final week of September.

On four separate occasions in late September, export volumes climbed between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd. This recovery marks a significant shift from the immediate aftermath of the conflict, when Kpler reported that the seven-day average of crude leaving the region plummeted by 72% within just ten days of the strait’s closure.

The revival has largely depended on logistical workarounds, including ship-to-ship transfers and the use of alternative corridors. Data indicates that roughly 40% of Gulf crude bypassed the Strait of Hormuz in September, a stark contrast to the 17% share seen prior to the war. In August alone, more than 70% of the crude underwent tanker transfers off the coast in the Gulf of Oman, whereas such maneuvers were virtually nonexistent before hostilities began.

Saudi Arabia expanded its output through the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates routed shipments via its pipeline to Fujairah. The primary exporters driving these volumes include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq.

Iran remains the notable exception to this trend. Its exports continue to lag well below pre-war averages, a situation attributed primarily to ongoing United States sanctions and policy measures.

Security concerns persist along maritime routes. In recent weeks, at least seven incidents involving vessels near Hormuz have been reported. On October 1, maritime intelligence firm Marisks confirmed that the tanker Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, forcing the safe evacuation of all crew members.