Latvian PM Kulbergs Poised to Retain Power Following Historic Election Win

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is expected to remain in office after his centrist United List alliance claimed a decisive victory in the country’s parliamentary election on Sunday. With 97% of ballots counted, the party captured 35.3% of the vote, translating to 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima. This result represents the highest share won by any party since Latvia regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

The outcome places Kulbergs in a favorable position to construct another coalition committed to supporting Ukraine. Political scientist Roberts Kits noted that United List could secure a parliamentary majority by forming a partnership with either the nationalist National Alliance or the liberal Progressives.

Kulbergs, a 47-year-old businessman and amateur rally driver, first assumed the role of prime minister in May following the collapse of the previous coalition. That government fell after disputes arose over the handling of incidents involving stray Ukrainian military drones. Despite his party’s lead in opinion polls, analysts anticipate that the ruling coalition will emerge weakened as populist movements continue to gain traction.

An exit poll indicated that the populist Latvia First party finished in second place with 11.3% of the vote, nearly doubling its performance in the 2022 election. The party has actively courted the nation’s substantial ethnic Russian minority. In response, Kulbergs stated on Saturday night that he would refuse to cooperate with pro-Russian factions and explicitly ruled out a coalition with Latvia First.

The election, Latvia’s 11th since 1991, was dominated by concerns regarding national security and the rising cost of living. Approximately 1.5 million eligible voters chose among 14 parties under a proportional system. As a NATO and EU member bordering Russia and Belarus, Latvia views the ongoing war in Ukraine as a direct threat to its security. The country is legally obligated to spend at least 5% of its GDP on defense, a commitment that ranks among the highest in Europe and limits resources available for other sectors.

Economic challenges, including sluggish growth, low wages, and pressure on the healthcare system, have fueled discontent among citizens. Populist groups such as the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First have sought to exploit this dissatisfaction by advocating for a less hostile stance toward Moscow and arguing that total economic decoupling from Russia is harmful.

Despite the rise of these movements, no major party has proposed deviating from Latvia’s established foreign policy alignment with the West. Four German Eurofighter jets have been deployed to Latvian airspace during the voting period at Riga’s request. With ballot counting nearing completion, attention will now shift to coalition negotiations, which are expected to be lengthy and complex.