For the first time in over three decades, the Atlantic Ocean has experienced an entire month with no hurricane formations. This marks a historic pause in seasonal activity, as September is typically the peak month for tropical cyclones. With only two months remaining in the 2026 season, meteorologists warn that it is increasingly likely the basin will record zero hurricanes.
If confirmed, this would be the first hurricane-free season during the satellite era, which began in the 1960s. Historical records from the Atlantic hurricane database show no such occurrence since 1914, though pre-satellite data cannot definitively rule out undetected storms.
The primary driver of this unusual quiet is a strong El Niño event. While this Pacific climate pattern typically suppresses Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear, it simultaneously fuels an exceptionally active season in the eastern North Pacific. As of October 2, the eastern Pacific has recorded nine hurricanes and 17 named storms, generating accumulated cyclone energy roughly two and a half times higher than normal.
In contrast, the Atlantic has seen four named storms in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna. All except Edouard remained in open waters, and forecasters from Colorado State University indicate that the persistent El Niño will likely continue to disrupt wind patterns, resulting in below-normal activity through the remainder of the season.
Originally, the US National Hurricane Center projected a quieter-than-average season in May, forecasting between eight and 14 named storms, three to six of which would strengthen into hurricanes. The current trajectory suggests these numbers could fall significantly short.
El Niño affects tropical development by shifting wind patterns, which increases upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic. This shear tears apart developing thunderstorms before they can organize into tropical storms or hurricanes. Meanwhile, warmer sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific provide abundant energy for storm growth in that region, where daily temperatures have already surpassed records set during the powerful 2015 El Niño.
Forecasters predict the El Niño will strengthen further, peaking in November or December. Despite the current lull, the National Hurricane Center advises continued vigilance as the season officially runs until November 30.
This highlights how interconnected our climate really is. The Pacific gets hammered while we get nothing but calm.
Zero hurricanes is a bold prediction. Forecasters love to call it quiet right until a surprise system forms.
I remember thinking last year this might happen. The wind shear data was screaming it all along.
Wait, so the Pacific is going wild while the Atlantic sleeps? That contrast is actually kind of fascinating.