Maps and Charts: How Ethiopia’s Conflict Has Expanded Beyond Tigray

Violence has escalated across northern Ethiopia nearly four years after a peace agreement concluded the devastating two-year war in the Tigray region. The renewed fighting has spilled over into the neighboring Amhara and Afar regions, disrupting life for millions and raising fears of a broader regional conflagration.

Government-aligned forces reported capturing the strategic town of Alamata in Tigray on September 28, while Tigrayan fighters have advanced into Afar territory. These developments have led to severe humanitarian consequences, including suspended commercial flights and telecommunications blackouts across much of Tigray, which are isolating families and hindering aid delivery.

Ethiopia’s army chief has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting armed opposition groups, allegations all three nations have firmly denied. Egypt specifically stated it strictly respects the sovereignty of its neighbors.

Key Battlefronts

The conflict is concentrated along multiple active fronts rather than a single battlefield. In southern Tigray, government forces have taken Alamata, a critical supply hub located approximately 120 kilometers south of the regional capital, Mekelle, near the border with Amhara. Prior to its capture, the town was targeted by drone strikes between September 22 and 23, hitting schools and a hospital, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).

To the west, clashes have erupted near the Tekeze River in an area disputed between Tigray and Amhara. In northern Amhara, government forces retook Sekota in the Wag Hemra zone on September 27 after fighting in the North Wello zone around Kobo and Gidan.

Further east, Tigrayan forces allied with the Ugugumo armed group of Afar have pushed into Afar territory. Their advance threatens the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia’s primary route for imports including fuel.

The Alliance for Survival

On September 20, seven Ethiopian armed and political groups formed an alliance known as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power and establish an inclusive transitional government, accusing the current administration of dictatorial rule.

The alliance’s principal military force is the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopian politics for decades before Abiy came to office in 2018. Other members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, which opposed Abiy’s government starting in 2023; the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA); the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF); the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo); the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement; and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. The Sidama National Liberation Front announced its addition on September 25.

However, the alliance’s unity is contested. ACLED senior East Africa analyst Jalale Getachew Birru noted that the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement denies joining, claiming it lacks an armed wing. The ONLF is divided, with one faction supporting the alliance and another rejecting it. Meanwhile, the OLA has signaled its primary interest lies in removing the government rather than engaging in coordinated military operations. As of September 26, ACLED identified only the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, and Ugugumo as actively engaging federal forces.

Historical Context

The resumption of hostilities stems from unresolved political and territorial tensions following the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Disagreements persist between the TPLF and the federal government regarding political control, security arrangements, and disputed territories.

Tensions have been mounting for months. ACLED data indicates that clashes began near the Sudanese border on August 1, followed by federal drone strikes and troop movements by Tigrayan forces. By September, Tigrayan forces had deployed tanks and artillery southward, alongside reports of renewed recruitment and forced mobilization in Tigray.

Fighting escalated sharply on September 23, when Tigrayan forces seized airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. The government characterized this as an “all-out offensive” launched by the TPLF, while the TPLF described the actions as a defensive war in response to attacks by aircraft, drones, and artillery.

Ethiopia, home to approximately 139 million people, is Africa’s second-most populous nation. It is also highly ethnically diverse, with over 80 distinct groups. The Oromo constitute the largest demographic at roughly 35 percent, followed by the Amhara at 24 percent. Other major groups include Somalis (7 percent), Tigrayans (6 percent), and Sidama (4 percent). The country is divided into 12 regional states and two chartered cities, Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa, under a federal system established in 1994 that largely follows ethnic and linguistic lines.