New Reports of Pre-Attack Warnings Challenge Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Election

The controversy surrounding whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received prior warnings of the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks continues to weigh heavily on his political standing ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 27.

The latest development emerged on Sunday following a Wall Street Journal report indicating that Abbas Kamel, Egypt’s intelligence chief, phoned Netanyahu just days before the assault. This follows earlier accounts suggesting Kamel flew to Israel in September 2023 to personally alert security officials about a planned Hamas offensive.

These revelations build upon previous reports from earlier this month, which cited Israeli and US media sources claiming that United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) had warned Netanyahu in the week leading up to the attacks that Yahya Sinwar, then-Hamas leader in Gaza, was orchestrating the assault.

Netanyahu has consistently denied receiving any such intelligence and has initiated legal action against outlets publishing the claims. Neither Kamel nor the Egyptian government has publicly commented on the reports. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated it does not address media speculation regarding private conversations between heads of state.

In an effort to deflect responsibility for the security failures that preceded the attacks, Netanyahu has targeted Ronen Bar, the former head of Israel’s internal security service, Shin Bet. Bar announced on Monday that he intends to sue the prime minister for defamation, citing their long-standing political rivalry.

Polling indicates that the circumstances of October 7 and the accountability for intelligence lapses remain pivotal issues for voters. The ongoing media coverage has kept the trauma of the attacks central to public discourse more than three years after Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza, which has resulted in over 74,000 Palestinian deaths according to local health authorities.

Political rivals have seized on the alleged warnings. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, leading the Beyachad alliance, stated that if the allegations are verified, Netanyahu is unfit to remain in office. Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party and former military chief of staff, who currently trails Netanyahu’s Likud party by a narrow margin in the polls, asserted that Netanyahu ignored dozens of warnings and is therefore unqualified to serve.

Despite the seriousness of the reports, analysts suggest the impact on election polls may be limited due to entrenched political loyalties. Ayala Panievsky, a London-based media analyst, noted that while the new revelations concern Netanyahu’s campaign team, polling has remained stable for years. She predicted that while the stories might dampen enthusiasm and turnout among the base, few supporters are likely to abandon him.

Nimrod Flaschenberg, an Israeli political analyst, observed that Netanyahu’s strategy of denying the claims and threatening lawsuits has provided his supporters with a narrative to reject the reports as fabricated. This dynamic is reinforced by Likud’s longstanding portrayal of itself as an outsider entity under attack by a hostile establishment.

Security expert Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, commented on the phenomenon of “ha-conceptzia,” the Hebrew term for the entrenched assumptions guiding Israeli security policy. He argued that both Egyptian and UAE warnings were ignored because Israeli leadership operated under the belief that Hamas was deterred and sought only to ease blockades rather than launch a major attack.

Bregman cautioned that strategic surprises are inevitable, noting that determined adversaries will eventually find ways to inflict significant damage. He suggested that future attacks could originate from the West Bank, emphasizing that while timing can be delayed, such events are unavoidable without addressing underlying grievances.