United States military personnel completed their withdrawal from all remaining bases in Iraq on Wednesday, a move that has ignited anxiety across the region regarding a potential security vacuum. Critics warn the exit could embolden Iran-aligned militias and provide the Islamic State group an opportunity to reorganize. The departure, widely celebrated by Tehran and its regional allies, was initially agreed upon under former President Joe Biden in 2024 and executed by the current administration of Donald Trump, even as Washington engages in active conflict with Iran, which exerts significant influence in Iraq through proxy forces.
This final exit occurs 23 years after US-led coalition forces ousted dictator Saddam Hussein, an intervention that ultimately triggered decades of instability and contributed to the rise of the Islamic State. While the withdrawal enjoys broad popularity among the Iraqi public, many citizens remain concerned that domestic security forces, despite being trained and funded by the United States, lack the capacity to protect the nation. More than 4,500 American service members lost their lives during the over two-decade military engagement.
“The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” stated Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who consults with local security forces. The US first invaded Iraq in 2003, installing a Shiite-led government and conducting a prolonged counterinsurgency against Saddam loyalists and al-Qaeda before withdrawing in 2011. They returned less than three years later to assist Iraqi troops in defeating the Islamic State between 2014 and 2017.
According to the Congressional Research Service, approximately twice as many Americans died in Operation Iraqi Freedom than in the parallel war in Afghanistan. During the ongoing conflict with Iran this year, seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed were deployed in Iraq; the most recent fatality was an army sergeant who died in July during the controlled detonation of a drone near Erbil.
Iran has characterized the US pullout as a major victory for its “axis of resistance,” a network of allied armed groups spanning the Middle East that seeks to force American forces out of the entire region. Analyst Ahmed Younis, based in Baghdad, noted that the primary concern is not necessarily direct Iranian military intervention, but rather the likelihood that Iranian proxies will feel increasingly empowered without a Western military presence. These groups may attempt to expand their influence over state policies and consolidate their positions within key government institutions.
Security officials in both the federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region fear the withdrawal could also revitalize Islamic State sleeper cells. At their peak, the militants controlled a third of Iraq and carried out mass killings, including the execution of hundreds inside a former US military base. Until recently, American troops provided critical intelligence, aerial surveillance, and reconnaissance support to Iraqi security forces regarding Islamic State movements.
Retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, who commanded a brigade during the fight against the Islamic State, emphasized the urgency of strategic planning. “The most important question now is whether Iraq’s security institutions have prepared a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase,” he said. He warned that one worst-case scenario involves the militants acquiring armed or improvised explosive drones at a time when Iraq lacks sufficient air defense capabilities to counter such threats effectively.
I worry local forces lack the capacity to fill the void. Can they really handle drone threats without US air defense support?
Twenty-three years later and we are right back where we started. It is heartbreaking to see this cycle repeat itself again.