The United States military is preparing to execute a complete withdrawal of its troops from Iraq on Wednesday, concluding a 12-year deployment that was originally launched in response to the Islamic State militant group. This event marks the second occasion in which the US has removed all of its military personnel from the nation.
The initial withdrawal occurred in 2011, ending an eight-year presence that followed the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. However, American forces returned in 2014 after ISIS seized significant territories in Syria and northern Iraq, posing a direct threat to Baghdad. Although the militant group was militarily defeated in 2019, maintaining a US presence was considered essential to prevent an insurgency resurgence.
The current pullout was negotiated by the Biden administration in 2024, with the Trump administration continuing the plan that designated September 30 as the final deadline. Officials note, however, that the regional landscape has shifted dramatically since the original agreement due to the ongoing war between the US and Iran.
Questions remain regarding the extent to which Iran can expand its influence in Iraq, given the shared Shiite cultural ties and Tehran’s history of supplying military support to Shiite militias within the region. There are also concerns about the potential for ISIS to regain strength now that US troops are departing.
For much of the past few years, approximately 2,500 American troops were stationed in Iraq. Over the course of this year, the US has been consolidating its operations into northern Iraq while quietly reducing its footprint in Erbil following the onset of the conflict with Iran. In recent months, the US presence in northern Iraq has become minimal.
This withdrawal follows a similar unplanned departure from eastern Syria earlier this year, which was driven by pressure from the new Syrian government against US-backed Kurdish partners. With the exit from Iraq, the US will end a military involvement that has spanned over two decades and resulted in roughly 4,500 American military deaths, the majority of which occurred between 2003 and 2011.
Finally, a full pullout. Maybe we can stop sending our troops to fight other people’s wars.
Another withdrawal while tensions with Iran escalate. The regional power balance is shifting fast.
I hope they learned from the 2011 mistake. Emptying the room entirely rarely ends well.
Twenty years and 4,500 lives. It is heavy to read these words again.
Does this mean Iran wins by default, or is it just a pause before the next conflict?