On September 30, 2026, Iraq marked the conclusion of a significant chapter in its modern history as the United States completed the withdrawal of its remaining 2,500 soldiers from Iraqi territory. The departure ends the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve, a 12-year campaign launched to combat the Islamic State group, or ISIS, which was at its peak during the 2014 offensive across Iraq and neighboring Syria. This move also brings to a close more than two decades of sustained US military engagement in the country, which began with the 2003 invasion, saw a brief withdrawal in 2011, and resumed in 2014.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi described the occasion as the start of a new era for national sovereignty. “October 1 will be a new day in the course of the Iraqi state, with the country free of any foreign military presence and the completion of national sovereignty over its territory,” al-Zaidi stated. The Iraqi government announced that October 1 would be observed as “Independence Day,” featuring four official public holidays.
The withdrawal was formalized under a 2024 agreement between Baghdad and Washington aimed at normalizing bilateral relations. Renad Mansour, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, noted that while the military footprint is receding, Iraq intends to maintain its alliance with the United States. However, he suggested that al-Zaidi is concerned about US perceptions linking Iraqi non-state militias to Iran, especially given the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iranian forces.
Despite the exit of American troops, Iraq is not entirely free of foreign military presence. Turkey continues to maintain troops in the north, although Ankara has indicated plans to gradually transfer a military base in northern Iraq to Baghdad. Meanwhile, the critical issue of disarming domestic armed groups faces significant delays. Baghdad had initially sought to link the end of the US mission to the integration of these militias into state control, but the deadline has now been pushed back to June 30, 2027.
Under the revised timeline, armed groups will observe a 90-day ceasefire in exchange for assurances that they will not be targeted by US forces, followed by a phased handover of weapons. Yet, major factions such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada have explicitly rejected disarmament plans. Alina L. Romanowski, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council, highlighted that these hardline groups show no sign of surrendering their arms or integrating into the national armed forces.
The withdrawal also entails the removal of US air defense systems from Erbil, the capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq. Since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran in February 2026, Erbil has suffered hundreds of missile and drone attacks from Iranian-backed militias. Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani has appealed to the central government in Baghdad for protection, following recent incidents including drone strikes on camps affiliated with Iran’s Kurdish opposition.
Concerns are mounting regarding the safety of Iraq’s ethnic and religious minorities, including Christians, Yazidis, and Kurds, once the US buffer is removed. Yerevan Saeed of the Atlantic Council warned that vulnerable communities may face increased exposure to predation from both central and regional actors. Mansour predicted that the security landscape would remain fragmented for some time, noting that the political ties between various movements and armed organizations make immediate sector reform unlikely.
In the coming years, US-Iraqi relations are expected to shift focus from security cooperation to economic and commercial ties. In July, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with al-Zaidi to discuss how a stable Iraq could foster mutually beneficial partnerships, though he emphasized that a normal defense relationship requires an environment free from terrorist coercion.
So the US is leaving, the militias aren’t disarming, and everyone is worried about the Kurds. Same old Middle East dynamics.
Interesting that Turkey still has troops in the north. Did anyone forget to inform the Kurds about that remaining foreign presence?
Independence Day is a great sentiment, but without security guarantees for minorities, will the celebration feel real on the ground?
Delaying militia disarmament until 2027 feels like kicking the can down the road. How long before those groups re-arm?
Finally over twenty years in Iraq. Here’s hoping this new era brings actual peace instead of just another power vacuum.